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Hotter, but Relief is in Sight.

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We have yet to reach 100 degrees, officially, but that may well change before the next few days are over. There was enough cloud cover to knock a few degrees off the afternoon highs for today, but Wednesday is expected to reach the mid 90s and the upper 90s to near 100 is expected for Thursday. Also, humidity levels will be high enough to push the heat index above triple digits both days as the dew point temperature should hold near 70 and the minimum relative humidity during the heat of the day is expected to be near 40%. All in all, hot and humid; but changes are on the way.

A cool front/wind shift will be pushing across the state on Friday and that will gradually bring some milder air over the state and a break in the heat. Gusty south winds again Wednesday will be over 20 mph at times, lighter south winds are expected through the day Thursday, and then shifting to a northerly direction as we go through the day Friday. The cooler air will take awhile to filter in so mid 90s are also expected for Friday afternoon. But, by Sunday and into the following week our daytime highs are expected to be below normal for a change with upper 80s the general rule. Notice the 8-14 day temperature map on the right which shows a pretty strong signal indicating below normal temperatures through next week.

Also, our nights which have been quite warm with lows in the mid-upper 70s will gradually fall off into the 60s by the early part of next week which is also a bit below normal.

Unfortunately, this does not appear to be a very wet system; at least not at this time. A few showers or storms may develop with the front on Friday, but the chances are pretty slim. An isolated shower or two may also occur on Saturday, but again the chances are in the slim to none category. The longer range guidance is at odds regarding our rain chances for Sunday as the GFS has a larger QPF footprint and the ECMWF has a much smaller one. For now, will just go with a slight chance of showers/storms but that is certainly subject to change.

This change to milder conditions is due to a rather significant change in the pattern aloft as the upper level ridge that has provided the recent hot, dry conditions will be shifting further westward allowing a more N to NW flow aloft over the state. That can be a more unsettled pattern for us as well as providing a break in the heat. Right now, the break in the heat is a good bet but the chances for showers/storms remains minimal for the time being.

At least this gives us something to look forward to. Also, quite a contrast to the last couple of summers in which just about every day during the month of July was at or above 100.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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