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Tuesday Morning Update

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Good Morning!  We've already set some record lows this morning across portions of Eastern OK and Northwestern Arkansas.  High today will be in the mid 80s along with mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions by this afternoon.  We're continuing to experience super great weather due to the upper level system to the east and the big ridge of high pressure west.  The northerly flow will bring pleasant winds with relatively dry air at the surface allowing morning lows to start in the upper 50s both this morning and tomorrow morning.  Afternoon highs will be in the lower to mid-80s for the next few days before the pattern begins to slowly change by Thursday and Friday. 

The latest run of the NAM indicates some showers and storms may be possible Thursday, July 4th, across North TX and part of southeastern OK.  A few showers and storms may also occur across extreme western OK into the high plains of TX.  At this point, we're going to keep the 4th precip free for northern OK but may mention a few showers possible for our neighbors both south and west of the region.  

The weekend will feature a mid-level low developing across the southern plains and possibly bringing us a chance for a few showers or storms from the weekend into early next week.  The GFS and EURO data have not been consistent not only from model to model but also from run to run.  A few previous runs took the low west and others north.  My confidence in the end of week and weekend forecast remains someone low, but our forecast seems to be in the best shape with all scenarios possible. We'll keep a mention of showers and storms in the forecast with increasing low level moisture and highs in the upper 80s near 90.  If one took the latest EURO at face value, we'll be precip free this weekend but have increasing rain and storm chances Monday through Wednesday of next week.   At this point, we do not see any triple digit temperatures in our forecast for the next 10 days but heat index values will be increasing during the next 5 to 8 days. 

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 87 recorded at 2:45pm.  This was above our forecasted high.   The normal daily average high is 92 and and the low is 72.  Our daily records include a high of 105 from 1933 and a low of 54 from 1924.

 Precipitation for the year is at 15.57 which is -5.77 inches below normal precip for the year to date of 21.34 inches.

 You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. https://www.facebook.com/AlanCroneNewsOn6  Twitter@alancrone 

I'll be discussing our regional and state-wide forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network Affiliates across the state through the noon hour.

 Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog. 

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV

 

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