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Wednesday Morning Update

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Our weather has been nothing short of spectacular since Sunday with a big ridge of high pressure across the western half of the nation and a mid to upper level low over the eastern third.  We've been stuck in the middle with a quiet northerly flow aloft and at the surface resulting in unseasonably dry and cool weather.  The morning temps have been down in the 50s with afternoon highs in the mid-80s for many locations across northeastern OK and southeastern Kansas.  The pattern will slowly change, but you'll notice these changes soon as humidity values increase and temps slowly climb closer to 90 by this weekend. There will be a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms near our area for the next 48 hours.  

We'll be starting this morning in the upper 50s for most locations before moving into the mid or upper 80s this afternoon.  The surface wind direction will begin this morning from the northeast but by later this afternoon our winds will back from the east and then southeast allowing a gradual return of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.  Once this moisture begins streaming northward...the party is over. Morning lows will start creeping upward and daytime highs will draw near the normal average over the next few days.  

The data has not been very good lately regarding the exact outcome of the next few days, but the pattern will suggest we keep a slight chance of showers or storms in portions of the forecast, including today across far northern OK and for part of the July 4th time period, but only for certain portions of our immediate areas of concern.   

Today and this afternoon there could be a few isolated showers or storms located from southeastern Kansas into far northeastern OK as northerly flow combined with the retro-grading eastern trough draws closer to the region.  This probably requires a 10% mention on the map, but I'll more than likely keep it off the big board due to the very limited coverage.  Famous last words of course.  

The 4th could feature a few showers or storms located across Northern OK and a few west of I-35.  We'll keep a slight mention on the 7day planner (10%) but could bring this to a 20 pop.  

Yesterday's data supported a Friday pop, but this morning I'm not so sure.  The main upper level trough ( currently across southeast Kansas) may be close enough to spark off a few showers or storms in the area, but GFS_EUFO data continues to keep us dry. I'm debating whether or not to add a slight pop for Friday. 

The weekend will remain mainly dry for most spots, but the data does support the weakening trough allowing for some lift across Eastern Ok and western Arkansas. We had some 10 pops for the weekend but I'm more than likely going to pull these pops from the big 7 day planner and wait to see what happens next week.  

Speaking of next week, the EURO depicts a boundary nearing the area around Wednesday with rain and storm chances.  This "pattern" could also allow for some toasty temperatures directly ahead of the frontal boundary, but the confidence continues to remain low at this point.  Regardless…the main big mid-level ridge will slowly expand eastward next week bringing some warmer air back to the state, but the really hot stuff may not make a return until late next week into the weekend. 

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 88 recorded at 2:56AM.

The normal daily average high is 92 and the low is 72.

Our daily records include a high of 107 from 1911 and a low of 54 from 1924.


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I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state this morning through the noon hour.


Thanks for reading the Wednesday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog,.


Have a super great day!


Alan Crone



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