Welcome back to summer. This past week weather-wise has been spectacular. Morning lows dropped into the 50s and afternoon highs were in the mid and upper 80s for many locations. Even part of the weekend was very good, but no doubt you noticed something yesterday when you stepped outside: the moisture is back. The next several days will revert back to a real-deal summer-time feel!
The upper air flow has changed and this has allowed the surface wind flow to return out of the southeast. This means low level moisture in the form of higher dew point temperatures will continue to stream into the region from the south. Over the next few days, not only will the surface temperatures rise, but the dreaded temperature heat index will rear its ugly head. Our surface temps will be in the mid and upper 90s for the next three days while the THI (temp heat index) values will be approaching the 103 to 106 range. Portions of our area may be included in a Heat Advisory or even a heat warning through at least Wednesday as temps directly ahead of the boundary may reach 100.
The mid-level ridge is still centered to our west but is slowly expanding eastward. This center portion of the ridge will stay west of the northeastern OK-Southeastern Kansas-Southwestern Missouri and northwestern Arkansas vicinity Wednesday through the approaching weekend. A weak surface front is depicted by most models to slide across part of Northern Ok Wednesday into Thursday before stalling and becoming diffuse by the end of the week. The presence of this weak boundary combined with daytime heating and more than sufficient low level moisture will result in a chance of thunderstorms Wednesday night through the weekend. We'll keep the chance around 30% for Wednesday night and keep the highs for the second half of the week around 95. Morning lows will remain quite warm.
The Thursday through Sunday time period may still feature a slight chance of showers or storms, especially Thursday night into Friday, while the boundary may still have some definition near the northern OK area. By the weekend, the pops will be limited to a few isolated storm chances, which will only require a 10% or less mention on the 7 day planner.
The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 95 recorded at 4:21pm.
The normal daily average high is 92 and the low is 72.
Our daily records include a high of 106 from 1917 and a low of 60 recorded on this date in 2006.
The precipitation for the year is 15.57 inches, which is currently -6.51 inches below the normal precipitation to date for the year of 22.08.
You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. https://www.facebook.com/AlanCroneNewsOn6
You'll hear my state-wide and regional weather forecasts on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network ( RON) affiliates across the state this morning through the noon hour.
Thanks for reading the Monday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.
Have a super great day!