Heat Advisories for Tue/Wed.

First off, a personal note if I may. This past Saturday marked my 20th anniversary with KOTV and I have been blessed and humbled by the many kind comments I have received. Needless to say, forecasting OK weather can be quite a challenge; but, then again that is what makes it so interesting. Anyway, thanks again.

Now, as far as the weather is concerned, the main challenge for the short term is just how hot it will be. Then the focus will shift to at least a possibility for some showers/storms and how much of an impact that will have on temperatures.

We will be close to triple digits for daytime highs on Tuesday and will likely reach triple digits on Wednesday. However, the humidity levels are much higher than what we experienced last week when the dew point temperatures were in the 50s. Those dew points are back into the upper 60s to around 70 this afternoon and should stay that way for the next few days. With a more SW surface wind and somewhat warmer air aloft, we expect to have fewer of the cumulus clouds on Tuesday and that should push the daytime highs close to 100. However, those higher dew points will also result in a heat index around the 105 mark and for that reason a heat advisory has been issued for Tuesday.

Wednesday will likely be even warmer with a weak frontal boundary moving down from the north late in the day. Often in a situation like that there will be some moisture pooling in advance of the front and also some compressional warming in advance of it. Not only that, but a more SW surface wind for much of the day all adds up to a hot, humid day with triple digit heat likely and heat index values likely in excess of 105 which is into the danger category.

The front is expected to stall out near I-40 with a more easterly wind component for much of the day Thursday. It will quickly become diffuse and our winds will be returning to a more SE direction for the rest of the week and going into the weekend. That combination should keep temperatures a little closer to normal and may also produce at least a chance of showers/storms. Right now, the best chance appears to be late Wednesday and into the day Thursday as the front moves through, but as the QPF map on the right shows, don't get your hopes up too high on our getting a good soaking rain. There will be some scattered showers/storms and a few locations could receive an inch or more in a short time, but the areal average as shown on the QPF suggests anything along those lines will be isolated at best.

So, some rather typical hot, humid mid-July weather will be the general rule for much of this week with only a few cooling showers/storms to provide much in the way of relief.

In the meantime, stay tuned, stay cool, and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot