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Thursday Morning Update

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Have you ever watched "The Hunt for Red October"?  The GFS-EURO just pulled a "Crazy Ivan".  I'll explain it later in the discussion.  But first….

The weak boundary will be near the northern OK vicinity today allowing for a few more scattered thunderstorms to develop later this afternoon.  And like yesterday, the coverage will be very low, but a few locations may experience some activity.  Any thunderstorm that forms and becomes mature could produce damaging down-bursts of winds and some hail. 

We hit 102 yesterday afternoon for the official high in Tulsa but temps should be in the mid-90s to upper 90s today with an east or northeast wind around 10 mph.  Low level moisture remains across the region and temp heat index values may run from 99 to 105 today.  Portions of eastern and southern OK will be included in another heat advisory through the evening, but the Excessive Heat warning for the Tulsa county area will not be needed for this forecast cycle as morning lows will drop into the lower and mid-70s the next few mornings and heat index values for the metro will be near or slightly below 105.  Areas south of the Tulsa area will be included in heat advisories with heat index values from 105 to 110.

The boundary will become diffuse or unrecognizable later this afternoon or tonight allowing the return of southeast winds Friday morning.  There may be one or two isolated storms pre-dawn Friday somewhere across northeastern OK but the odds would support a dry morning.  Afternoon highs Friday will move into the mid-90s with the index near 105. 

This weekend the mid-level ridge of high pressure currently centered to our northwest will slide northward and re-establish the center across Southern Iowa or Northern Missouri by Sunday into early next week. Slightly drier air may move  across the Missouri Valley into northern OK allowing for morning lows to drop into the lower 70s Saturday morning and possibly the upper 60s Sunday morning.  This doesn't sound like much, but it will give us a minor break from the very warm and humid mornings we have experienced for most of this week.  Afternoon highs will be in the lower or mid-90s this weekend.

At this point the pattern would not support any significant chance of organized thunderstorm activity for the weekend but a few late afternoon isolated summer-like pop up storms would be possible along the OK-Arkansas state line vicinity.

Now the Crazy Ivan. 

In the movie, "The Hunt for Red October" a Russian submarine commander abruptly turns his submarine in a 180 degree fashion in an attempt to discover if anyone is following under the sea.  Our extended models ( EURO_GFS) have pulled a crazy Ivan ( a reversal from previous data) and now bring an upper level closed low from the East Coast westward to near the state by the early to middle portion of next week.  If this is correct, our weather next week feature thunderstorms with highs in the 80s Monday and Tuesday.  This last run for both models is the first depiction of this major shift from previous data.  I think the prudent call is to wait another run or so before jumping on the bandwagon.  But I will add some slight storm chances to the extended forecast and begin trending the temps down a few degrees.  Stay tuned!

The former Tropical Storm Chantal is no longer a named system but will remain a prolific rainfall producing system as it approaches Hispaniola, Haiti, Cuba, and the southeastern US coastline including the East coast of Florida.  I'll post more information on my Facebook page later today.  

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 102 recorded at 4:44pm. .  The normal daily average high is 93 and the low is 73.  Our daily records include a high of 107 from 1954 and a low of 59 from 1905.

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You'll hear my state-wide and regional forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state this morning through the noon hour.

Thanks for reading the Thursday Morning Weather Discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

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