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Raising the Rain Chances Next Week.

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The times, they are a-changing. Well, at least the forecast is. Newer data coming in over the last 24 hours is now suggesting we will see an increased chance of showers/storms before the weekend is over and extending into at least the early part of next week. Along with the better chances of rain, comes more cloud cover and a break in the heat. Notice the QPF map on the right which suggests an areal coverage of an inch or more of rainfall through the forecast period. Keep in mind, that is an areal coverage so some locations will likely pick up much more than that while other locations will receive less. At least we have a shot of some badly needed rainfall which is a big change from what the guidance was showing just 24 hours ago.

There were a few storms this afternoon, but again they were very spotty. Little or no mention of rain is expected for Friday and Saturday so the heat will still be with us. Daytime highs will remain above normal but at least we expect to be below triple digits both days. Our nights should see some relief as well with morning lows in the low-mid 70s the next couple of mornings.

We could see some showers/storms as early as late Saturday night, but a better chance is expected during the day Sunday and particularly as we go into early next week. This is all due to a disturbance aloft which is now located in the vicinity of the eastern Great Lakes. It is rather unusual for a system from there to retrograde, that is move from E-W, but that is what is currently anticipated. Like I said, this is a rather unusual scenario and may flip on us again with later data runs, but the longer range guidance has been consistent so far today in bringing it directly across the state by early next week.

With that in mind, have started trending the rain chances up and if later data runs confirm this trend, will be able to bring those chances up even more. Reluctant to go overboard on this system just yet, but it certainly does have some promise. We can certainly use the rainfall and the break in the heat. In fact, if current trends do verify, we will likely have several days early next week in which the temperature will stay in the 80s.

So, keep your fingers crossed, stay tuned, and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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