Wow! The main upper level system is located west of the state this morning but another round or two of shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible for a few locations this morning and afternoon. The unseasonably "not as hot temps" will remain today with highs in the mid to upper 80s. The readings will return to near or above normal temperatures by the end of the week. A weak front may approach northern OK or southern Kansas this weekend but the odds of this front sliding southward into the body of the state will remain slim. None the less, we'll mention a slight chance of a few showers or storms this weekend for some locations with highs in the 90s.
Rainfall over the last two days has been nothing short of spectacular for areas of central and southwestern OK where some multi-inch rainfall has occurred. Locations near Tulsa southward have recorded some half inch to near inch totals will extreme eastern OK has had very little rain or storm activity.
Rainfall for the month now stands at 0.35 for Tulsa which brings our year to date total up to 15.95 inches of precipitation. This is still -7.04 below the normal precip to date for the Tulsa area. I'll keep a chance of showers and storms in the forecast today with highs in the upper 80s but the rainfall possibilities will be lessening as the day progresses as the main upper level system moves more west and weakens.
The mid-level ridge of high pressure is now expected to re-establish over the Midwest into the northeast where unseasonably warm weather will remain for the next few days. This ridge will build or nudge into northeastern OK Wednesday or more so Thursday helping to limit any precip chances to isolated storm mentions while bringing the temperatures back to normal averages. Humidity values will also be slowly increasing.
The GFS- and EURO data both suggest a weak boundary will be nearing the southeastern Kansas or northern OK vicinity by the weekend but the data diverges with more of a southerly push by the GFS while the EURO keeps the boundary north. This summer has been filled with unusual weather patterns, but the odds of the front passing the Tulsa area will remain slim. We introduced a slight chance of showers and storms for the weekend because of this slight probability last night, and I see no reason to remove the pops at this point. Plus, we may have a few isolated or " summer pop up" storms this weekend along the Eastern OK and Western Arkansas state line area which is a normal occurrence for mid-July. If that's not enough, the EURO seems to indicate a weak mid-level wave moving up across east TX into part of eastern OK Sunday.
The temperatures these past few days have super great for mid-July. We've had two "heat waves" and two "cool waves" so far this summer! The official high in Tulsa yesterday was only 83 compared to the normal high of 93. Some locations east of Tulsa (along and east of Highway 69-75) moved into the mid and upper 80s with a little more in the way of sun breaks. After a cool start this morning in the 60s we should move into the mid or upper 80s along with a chance of a few isolated storms this afternoon.
You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter. https://www.facebook.com/AlanCroneNewsOn6
I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state through the morning to midday hours.
Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.
Have a super great day!