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Thursday Morning Update

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Expect dry conditions for most if not all of the day with highs near 91.  Another system will move into the region late tonight into tomorrow with more rain and storms.  Some may be severe but heavy rainfall will also be a concern.

We're currently in a holding pattern for most of the day before another strong system will approach the area late tonight into Friday.  There will be a chance of some severe weather with the system in the form of damaging wind and some hail, but the higher likelihood for this type of weather may reside across northwestern OK and southwestern Kansas this evening.  We could have some spotty severe storms Friday, but our main threat may be in the form of heavy rainfall resulting in some localized flooding issues across areas that received heavy rainfall Tuesday night.  Our friends at the National Weather Service have issued a flash flood watch for a large portion of northeastern OK in preparation for this potential.  A flash flood watch means that conditions are expected to be favorable for flooding in and close to the watch area.

The temps this morning are in the upper 60s and lower 70s along with light northeast winds in the 10 mph range.  Later today as the upper level disturbance approaches the southeastern Colorado vicinity, our surface pressure will begin to fall allowing our winds to back from the southeast in the 10 to 15 mph range.  Low level moisture will already be in place across the area but the backing of the wind will enhance the moisture along a stationary boundary expected to be located somewhere across the northern third of the state.  Storms will develop this afternoon and early evening across western OK, western Kansas and eastern Colorado before forming one or more storm complexes.  The upper air flow will allow these clusters of storms to move east and southeast by early Friday morning into our immediate area.  There will remain some uncertainty regarding the exact track of the storm complex.  The operational models indicate the system may slow down Friday allowing for prolonged rain chances, cloudy conditions, and the potential for flooding.  A benefit from this system will be the cooler air.  Daytime highs are expected to stay in the upper 70s or lower 80s Friday afternoon.

Friday afternoon as the surface low slides east or southeast, winds will change direction out of the north allowing drier surface air to slide across southern Kansas and northern OK.  This will begin to limit the precip in the north while continuing the rain-storm chances Friday night across southern OK and southwestern Arkansas.  There may be a few "left over" showers or storms early Saturday morning across extreme southeastern OK but I anticipate the system will quickly exit the region.  We will keep the weekend void of precipitation chances for this forecast cycle.

Temperatures this weekend will be mild.  Morning lows will be expected in the mid-60s and daytime highs in the mid-80s Saturday and near 90 Sunday with mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions.  If all goes as planned, the weather should be fantastic. 

Early next week we do expect another system to brush the state with a chance for a few thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday, or possibly Tuesday into Wednesday.  The timing of this early week system is inconsistent in the data, but I think the Monday-Tuesday time frame is the way to go at this point.  The higher chances may reside north of the state but it may be close.  More later.

The official high yesterday in Tulsa was 90 recorded at 4:47pm.

The normal daily average high is 94 and the low is 73.
Our daily records include a high of 108 from 1934 and a low of 54 from 1911.

Precip for the year is now 18.46 inches which is still -5.46 below normal compared to normal precip to date of 23.92 inches.

You'll find me on Facebook and twitter.

I'll be discussing our state-wide and regional weather outlooks on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state this morning through the noon hour.

Thanks for reading the Thursday Morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a good day!

Alan Crone


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