Some patchy fog is a possibility this morning across extreme northern OK and southern Kansas as clouds attempt to thin out and temperatures drop into the lower to mid 70s. I don't think this will be a big issue near the Tulsa metro this morning as the clouds may stick around for most of the morning, but some fog will be possible. This afternoon temperatures will move into the lower 90s along with northeast winds in the 10 to 15 mph range. Heat index values this afternoon will still reach the mid to upper 90s. A few small isolated storms will be possible this morning across southern OK.
Some of the Hr3-RAP runs indicate a few showers or storms developing around midmorning near the I-40 corridor and sliding southward to the Red River by afternoon. This is a definite possibility, but I think the higher coverage may end up southward across the north TX area. I'll keep the pop off the map this morning but make some on air mentions.
The upper air flow remains from the northwest for the next several days and this will keep a slight chance of thunderstorms in our forecast for part of the extended outlook.
A weak boundary is located to our south this morning and we will be under the influence of northeast surface winds for the day. Later this evening our winds will back from the east to southeast as the boundary moves or reforms well north of the state. Despite this boundary southward today, no appreciable change in the low level moisture field will occur.
Most data keep any organized storm chances out of the state for most of the next few days with the higher likelihood in central and southern Kansas Thursday evening through the weekend. But because the upper air flow is from the northwest to southeast, some thunderstorm activity could easily move into the northeastern part of the state, mainly during the late overnight to early morning time periods. To accommodate this slightly possibility, we'll keep a slight pop for the Friday morning, Saturday morning, and Sunday morning time periods across northeastern OK and southeastern Kansas. Locations south of Tulsa will have even lessor rain-storm chances through the weekend. The EURO suggests a mid-level ridge of high pressure will flatten early next week allowing a surface boundary to move into northern OK around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. This would increase the rain chances and lower the temps for the first full week in August!
Temperatures today will be in the lower 90s and readings will move into the mid and upper 90s for the remainder of the week with morning lows moving back into the mid-70s tomorrow morning through the weekend.
The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 90 recorded at 5:10pm.
The normal daily average high is 94 and the low is 73.
Our daily records include a high of 112 from 2012 and a low of 51 from 1971.
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