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Unsettled Pattern Through Next Week.

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I have been referring to the QPF map for the last several forecast discussions and will refer to it again today. As you can see from the updated 7 day QPF map on the right, there continues to be a bulls-eye for potentially heavy rainfall just across the state line into KS and eastward into MO. But, the axis has shifted a little further south and there is also a rather tight N/S gradient in rainfall amounts. This all suggests that the axis of heaviest rainfall could shift a little more in either direction with the potential for too much rain too fast for some locations, particularly the more northern counties of OK.

That was evident from the storms overnight in which Delaware County ended up with the brunt of the heaviest rains in a short period of time as you can see from the 24 hour rainfall map on the right, courtesy of the OK Mesonet. A similar scenario could play out on just about any given day over the course of the coming week, with the possible exception of this weekend.

More about the weekend in a moment, but let's get there first.

For this afternoon/evening, there is some strong differential heating taking place due to the residual cloud cover left over from the overnight storms that is keeping the more northern counties in the 80s. Along and south of I-40, temperatures are well into the 90s under mostly sunny skies and this creates a boundary along which there will be a chance of storms forming late this afternoon. If they do crank up, there will be a severe threat, primarily due to the possibility of damaging wind/hail.

At the same time, additional shower/storms are expected to re-develop further west during the late evening/early night time hours and that activity will be spreading this way for the late night hours and into the morning of Friday. This will be similar to what we experienced this morning with widespread early morning showers/storms, some of which may also be severe with a wind/hail threat.

That activity will then be moving on eastward during the day followed by another chance of evening/overnight showers/storms for Friday night into Saturday morning. After that, we should get a brief break with only isolated showers/storms for the rest of the day Saturday and into the day Sunday. Late Sunday and into the day Monday and each day after that will see additional chances of showers/storms, any one of which could produce some locally heavy rainfall. In other words, this unsettled pattern we are in will be rather slow to change and looks to be in place throughout next week as well.

At least this is all combining to keep temperatures in check and should generally be below normal throughout this forecast cycle. Daytime highs in the upper 80s to near 90 under mostly cloudy skies should be the general rule each day with morning lows in the lower 70s. Our winds will be generally from a more E to NE direction which will also help hold temperatures down.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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