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Tuesday Morning Update

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The flash flood watch remains in effect for a large portion of central, northern, and east-central OK today and tonight.  Please check the "red bar" at the top of the web page for current watch and warning data.  Moderate to heavy rainfall in the form of scattered showers and storms will occur today in these areas that could result in some flash flooding issues in a few locations.    Temperatures will remain well below the seasonal average with some locations staying in the upper 70s for most of the day before temperatures attempt a late day rally moving into the lower 80s.  A cold front is sliding across the area this morning and will eventually bring drier air to northern OK and southern Kansas while rain and storm activity pushes into north TX.

The upper air flow from the northwest to southeast will remain for the week and possibly amplify by Friday.  A weak boundary is sliding southward this morning and will be located south of Tulsa by mid-morning and near the Red River by early afternoon.  Storms that developed last evening across western OK are continuing to survive early this morning while moving across our immediate area across eastern and northern OK.  The severe weather will remain very low but a few storms could produce some small hail and gusty wind.  No Severe thunderstorm watches are currently underway, but the threat for moderate to heavy rainfall will remain for the next 8 hours or so across northern OK. 

As the boundary slides southward, drier air will move across the upper Midwest into the Missouri Valley.  Showers and storms may persist today for a few hours before the focus shifts southward into southern Ok and north TX later this afternoon and evening.  Most of the rain should be located south of our immediate area tomorrow, but we will keep a chance of showers or storms in the Wednesday forecast with highs in the lower 80s.  The leading edge of the dry air mass will slide across southern Kansas and northern OK Thursday allowing morning lows by Thursday morning and Friday morning to drop into the lower to 60s.  Some data suggest upper 50s will be possible across southwestern Missouri and northwestern Arkansas during this time period.  Afternoon highs will range in the mid-80s for the end of the week before temps begin warming to near 90 Sunday into early next week.

As stated yesterday, some of the data suggest the potential remains for a few showers or storms Thursday and Friday, but we think the higher probability may stay west or northwest of our immediate areas.  The confidence level of this portion of the forecast remains low and some changes may occur.  Please check back often for updates, but at this juncture in the forecast process, our probability remains near 10% for the Friday period as a mid-level disturbance moves across the central plains.

The upper air pattern may remain favorable for additional showers and storms early next week after briefly hitting the lower 90s. 

Our official high in Tulsa yesterday was 87 at 5:41pm.

The normal daily average high is 94 and the low is 72.

Our daily records include a high of 114 from 1936 and a low of 54 from 1967.

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.

I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates across the state this morning through the noon hour.

Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.

Have a super great day.

Alan Crone


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