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Thursday Morning Update

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The temperatures will begin to climb a few degrees for afternoon highs both today and tomorrow. Afternoon readings may be in the range from 97 to near 99 degrees today as the normal high temperature is 91. Data suggest temperatures Friday and Saturday will be near or slightly above 100.  The data has had a slight "warm bias" lately and lush green vegetation may also play a role keeping numbers down slightly.   Heat index values will be over 100 regardless.  These abnormally high readings are a result of a mid-level Ridge of high-pressure center across the southern plains. But this mid-level Ridge is expected to slide south west of our area soon allowing a weak upper level disturbance to provide a few scattered showers or storms Friday across eastern Oklahoma. We continue to think the probability will remain low.

 The computer model data also gives us a slight opportunity to see a few showers storms Sunday night late into Monday as the mid-level ridge remains west and a frontal boundary approaches the area. A major upper level low will develop and move over the Hudson Bay Area of Canada this weekend. In response, a cold front will develop and move across the northern and central plains states. This front may approach southern Kansas and extreme northern Oklahoma sometime Sunday afternoon or evening with a chance for a few showers or storms.  Euro data indicates the front will move across northern Oklahoma bringing north winds and not as hot here early next week. Regardless of the exact position of the cold front, there seems to be a consensus in the data providing a chance for showers and storms Sunday and Monday.  We'll keep the probability on the low side for this forecast cycle.  

 Temperatures this weekend will continue to be very warm and above the seasonal averages. But data also suggest a minor cool down Monday Tuesday and Wednesday of next week with afternoon highs in the lower 90s. Morning love will start in the upper 60's and lower 70's.  

 We are also seen signs in the observational data and computer data that the tropics maybe come active during the next 2 to 3 weeks.  Several disturbances may eject from the coast of Africa in a favorable position for intensification during this time.   

 The official high temperature in Tulsa yesterday was 91.   

 Our normal high temperature is 91 and the normal low is 69. Our daily records include a high of 107 from 1984 and a low of 51 from 1931. 

 You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.   

 I'll be discussing our state wide and regional forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network stations this morning.  

 Thank you very much for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.   

 Have a super great day.

 Alan crone

 

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