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Monday Morning Update

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Good morning and welcome to Monday.  Most of the summer has been very pleasant compared to the previous three.  But the pattern over the last two weeks has brought late season heat to the southern plains including northeastern Oklahoma.  Everywhere I went this weekend people are asking the same question; when is this heat going to end?  The short answer is not today or tomorrow, but it should be soon.  The temperatures by the end of the week will be closer to seasonal averages. 

  The mid-level Ridge of high pressure centered near and north of our area this morning will slide eastward and weaken over the next two to three days.  A mid-level system will slide across the northern third of the country by Wednesday or Thursday and this may allow a week front to enter northern Oklahoma around Thursday or Friday.  A few showers or thunderstorms seem likely with this system for but the coverage will be very low.  We'll keep any mentions to 20% or less.    

 I do not think this front will bring any big changes regarding the temperature, but it should allow our temperatures to be closer to normal averages which would be considered a victory!  The actual boundary may stay closer to the northern OK state line before becoming diffuse this weekend.  A stronger system may arrive early next week.   

 Extended data continue to support a trough developing in the western Pacific over the next week.  The Sun angle continues to change almost every day becoming lower and lower on the horizon.  Consequently sunset is also earlier every evening compared to the previous day.  All of the above point toward fall arriving soon and the official start of fall is Sunday September 22nd.   

 Some low-level moisture has moved northward into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas over the weekend.  We did experience a few scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday across far southern Oklahoma, and we may have a few later today across extreme Western sections of Arkansas.  NAM model data support a slight chance of isolated storms Wednesday across extreme eastern OK but  once again, we'll keep the pops out of the forecast as coverage would result in maybe just a few small showers.  

In summary:  the warm air continues to be forecasted for the next several days.  Daytime highs will be into the mid or upper 90's today and lower in mid 90's Tuesday and Wednesday.  

 The Official high temperature in Tulsa yesterday was 99 recorded at 2:27pm.

 The normal daily average high is 87 and the low is 65.   

 Daily Records include a high of102 from 1909 and a low of 51 from both 2011 and 1943.    

 You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.   

 I'll be discussing our statewide and regional weather forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma News Network affiliates through the morning hours.   

 Thank you for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.   

 Have a super great day! 

Alan Crone

KOTV

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