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Rain on the Way.

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Mostly cloudy skies will be the general rule for the next few days along with increasing chances of showers/storms, particularly during the day Monday and into the day Tuesday. A stalled frontal boundary across N TX will start moving back this way as a warm front while a stronger system aloft moves out of the southern Rockies and into the Plains. This combination will be spreading widespread moisture our way resulting in the clouds and also the high probability of rainfall. In fact, there remains the possibility of locally heavy rainfall as the 3 day QPF map on the right clearly shows. Again, this depicts an areal average so locally heavier amounts will be possible and may even result in local drainage problems.

The timing continues to suggest only a slight chance of a few showers/storms as we go through the day today and into the night tonight, so this Sunday looks to be mostly dry despite the cloud cover. The stronger forcing will be developing in W OK overnight and spreading this way towards morning. Look for widespread showers/storms to be moving into this side of the state during the morning hours and moving rather slowly eastward through the afternoon. The actual surface cool front will not be reaching us until Tuesday morning so more showers/storms are expected again to start the day Tuesday. It should finally be tapering off from W-E later Tuesday although some lingering energy aloft may be able to wring out a few isolated showers again Wednesday.

E to NE winds today and the cloud cover will keep daytime highs in the 70s although the more southern counties could approach 80. A more SE wind on Monday and the cloud cover will keep us from cooling much tonight so the morning should start near 60. But, the widespread showers/storms will likely hold temperatures in the 60s for much of the day. Any breaks could produce a brief shot up to the lower 70s. The rainfall and the winds shifting to the NW behind the cool front on Tuesday should keep us in the 60s pretty much all day and would not be surprised if temperatures are actually falling during the afternoon hours.

After that, morning lows in the 40s and daytime highs in the 60s to near 70 are expected for the rest of the week and going into the coming weekend. The longer range guidance is at odds by the time the coming weekend rolls around as the GFS keeps us basically dry while the ECMWF tries to develop another strong system aloft with attendant shower/storm chances. For now, have opted to introduce only a slight chance of a shower and will await additional data runs to see if they will converge on a more consistent solution.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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