A major upper level trough will move closer to the state during the next 36 hours providing high rain and thunderstorm chances. Some of the storms may produce locally heavy rainfall and some thunderstorm activity may become severe. There will be some complicating factors regarding the severe weather evolution including early morning thunderstorm activity that could limit surface instabilities later today. The main trough will clear the state Thursday morning and a surface cold front will surge across eastern OK bringing dry and stable air to the region.
A very moist atmosphere remains across the state this morning with local dew point temperatures in the lower and mid-60s. The moisture is also deep into the atmosphere and not just in the surface layer. The main trough is still located across the southwestern U.S. this morning and will move eastward later this afternoon. A surface cold front and dry line will remain well west of the state today and will not surge eastward until 4am to 10am Thursday morning. Before these surface features arrive, thunderstorms are likely to occur today across central and eastern OK, including the morning to midday hours. These morning showers and storms may produce heavy rainfall, but the wind profile aloft may support severe storms, even this morning, along the I-35 corridor from north TX into south central OK. As storms move northward this morning and overrun the region, this may act to limit surface instabilities for most of the day across eastern OK, while areas west of I-35 may experience a greater instability by late this afternoon. This would act to destabilize the atmosphere along the I-35 corridor later this afternoon and evening. Basically we're in a "wait and see" mode regarding the morning thunderstorm activity. The larger coverage of showers and storms this morning may inhibit severe weather later this afternoon. The exact timing remains tricky, but I'm anticipating a batch of precip to begin around 7-8am this morning and overspread the region by 10am. This should continue until about 2pm to 3pm. Additional storms will develop this evening around 10pm to midnight and should continue through 7am to 10am Thursday morning. These " timings" are for eastern OK.
Later tonight into pre-dawn Thursday morning the surface cold front will rapidly move eastward into northern OK. This boundary will not clear the Tulsa area until 10am and probably not clearing the southeastern OK area until noon to 2pm. Most of the thunderstorm activity should exit the NE OK after the 10am to noon hour from the west to east, but a few showers or storms may linger longer across eastern sections.
Thursday night looks good with decreasing clouds, northwest winds, and temperatures dropping into the lower 60s by 6pm and into the upper 50s by 9pm. Halloween and Fall Family Festival events should be in great shape.
Friday into the weekend also look very good. Morning lows in the lower 40s will be followed by highs in the upper 60s or near 70. The weekend should feature cool mornings in the upper 30s to lower 40s and afternoons in the 60s.
Another system will arrive Monday into Tuesday of next week with the higher chance for thunderstorm activity located to our south.
The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 76 recorded at 1:55pm.
The normal daily average high is 69 and the low is 46.
The daily records include a high of 90 from 1937 and a low of 15 from 1917.
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