Grab the rain gear! You're going to need it this morning and for part of tonight into Wednesday morning before this system leaves the state. Temperatures will stay in the lower 60s today and in the lower 50s Wednesday.
A fetch of pacific moisture is moving back into our region this morning. Rain with a few rumbles of thunder will be likely this morning and some precipitation may be heavy in a few locations. Computer model projections support anywhere from 1 to 2 inches of rain across Eastern OK with some locally higher amounts across far southeastern OK. No flood watches are posted at this point for our immediate areas.
The long wave trough aloft is positioned across the inter-mountain region this morning and will continue moving eastward during the next 36 hours. This trough will provide snow today in the Rockies and help to bring the rain chances into our area. We are not expecting severe weather across northeastern or eastern OK today as instability will remain very low. A few strong thunderstorms may occur across far southwestern OK and northwest TX late this afternoon or evening for a few hours, but these storms will remain well removed from our area.
The current timing of the system would support high rain chances this morning before we'll see a break late this morning into the afternoon and early evening according to a few of the RAP runs. NSSL data keeps scattered showers going through the afternoon before a break late in the day. Needless to say, my timing for a temporary break in the action today is of low confidence. A surface cold front will arrive early Wednesday morning with another batch of showers or storms. We anticipate this activity exiting the Tulsa area around 6am to 8am and the East central OK vicinity by 10am or so. Strong northwest winds will commence with temperatures remaining in the 40s Wednesday morning. We should have a small rebound window into the lower or even mid 50s Wednesday afternoon for official highs, but wind chill values in the 40s will be likely. Wednesday will be a chilly and windy day.
Thursday and Friday will be dominated by dry air and clear sky. This will allow morning lows to drop near the local dew points with most locations in the mid to upper 30s. Daytime highs will be near 60 Thursday and into the lower 60s Friday.
A fast moving short wave zips across the central plains states Saturday and will drive a surface cold front into the state Saturday morning with no precipitation. The weekend appears good.
Another system may near the area early next week, but low level moisture may be lacking. The extended will remain dry at this point.
The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 65 recorded at 2:59pm.
The normal daily average high is 66 and the low is 44.
Records include a high of87 from 1914 and a low of 25 from 1976.
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