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Warming Trend Going Into the Weekend.

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In yesterday's discussion, I mentioned that we have not yet had an ‘official' freeze in Tulsa this season.  Well, that changed this morning when temperatures bottomed out at 30 degrees at the ‘official' observation location out at the airport.  Of course, many of the outlying locations had already had a light freeze and we have had several frosty mornings up to today.  Notice the map on the right, courtesy of the OK Mesonet.  It shows the total number of hours below freezing over the last week as well as the lowest temperature recorded during that time frame.

After the cold morning start, sunny skies and a light westerly breeze is producing a nice rebound and afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 60s will prevail this afternoon.  We will have clear skies for the overnight hours, but with a light southerly breeze temperatures will not be quite as cold with morning lows in the upper 30s for the most part.

Friday will see strong southerly winds return and along with the sunny skies should push daytime highs into the upper 60s.  Those southerly winds will still be blowing at 10-20 mph for the Friday evening football games and with temperatures falling into the 50s will make it rather chilly.

Saturday will also have lots of sunshine along with a milder start with morning lows in the 40s and daytime highs back into the upper 60s.  More of the same is expected for Sunday  even though a weak boundary will try to make it into the state; it will not do much more than give us a more easterly wind component for a time during the day and temperatures will still reach the upper 60s to near 70 that afternoon.

Monday is also looking to be mild with morning lows near 50 and a daytime high well into the 60s.  However, the longer range guidance has come into much better agreement, at least for now, regarding the coldest air of the season moving in for the Tue-Wed time frame.  The operational models from the earlier guidance even had some talking about the potential for wintry weather, but the ensemble means did not support that solution and neither has the data that has come in so far today for the operational runs. 

So, barring any surprises, here is how it should shake out.  Look for falling temperatures during the day Tuesday along with a cold rain and gusty northerly winds.  Wednesday should then be sunny but with the coldest air of the season in place so it looks to be a raw day.  Morning lows in the 20s and daytime highs in the 40s should prevail, but it also should be dry.  After that, another rebound in temperatures is likely by that following weekend.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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