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Warming Trend for the Weekend.

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In case you are wondering, this recent cool snap was far from being a record breaker, but it did bring our growing season to an untimely end. The normal killing freeze (which is defined as temperatures at or below 24) date for the Tulsa Metro area is Nov 27.

So, after another chilly day today, much milder conditions will be the general rule going through the weekend before our next cool-down arrives later Sunday. Brisk southerly winds today have moderated temperatures somewhat today, but the mostly cloudy skies have also kept temperatures in check. The result has been a cooler than normal day but as we go through the overnight hours tonight, temperatures will be rather tricky. The reason is we will keep southerly breezes of 5-15 mph and cloudy skies, but the near surface air is quite dry with dew point temperatures in the 20s and there will be a chance of a few light showers. That combination usually results in very little or only very light rain reaching the surface but where the rain does fall the evaporative cooling can produce some dramatically cooler air. Since any showers are expected to be spotty, will go with overnight temperatures generally holding in the lower 40s, but any brief showers could bring the numbers down more than that. At any rate, there is no icing potential so no travel issues are anticipated.

As this system moves on eastward, we should see more sunshine by Friday afternoon along with brisk southerly winds to bring temperatures well into the 60s which is above normal.

A stronger system aloft will then be moving overhead on Saturday with cloudy skies and a better chance of showers and perhaps even a rumble or two of thunder. Areal coverage looks to be on the order of 40% or so and that activity is expected to be coming to an end Saturday evening or early night. Saturday will also be quite windy with southerly winds up to 30 mph or more common. That means a very mild start to the day with upper 50s that morning and afternoon temperatures should reach the lower 70s despite the clouds and chances of rain. As you can see by the 7 day QPF map on the right, rainfall totals are expected to be rather low.

Another cool front will be arriving during the day Sunday, in fact the guidance continues to bring it through faster rather than slower. Gusty SW winds Sunday morning will be gradually veering around to the W and then the NW as the cool front moves through. This veering wind profile will shift the bulk of the moisture well east of us so we should have a good bit of sunshine and little or no mention of rain as the front pushes through. Temperatures will also be quite mild with morning lows near 60 and daytime highs near 70.

Cooler air will be filtering in Sunday night behind the front, but this is a modified Pacific air mass as opposed to the Canadian blast we received earlier this week. So, early next week will be cooler, but not overly cold and should also be dry. Another, potentially wetter system looks to be waiting in the wings along about that following weekend.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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