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Storms Thursday, Friday Looks Interesting.

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Interesting, very interesting is the way this coming Friday is shaping up. Much colder air will be surging across the state later Thursday and Thursday night with temperatures expected to be near the freezing mark by Friday morning. Gusty northerly winds will keep temperatures near the freezing mark throughout the day Friday. Of concern though is the fact that at the 5,000 foot level the winds will be from the SW and temperatures will be in the 50s. This very warm layer of air aloft riding over the much colder air near the surface sets up a potential wintry mess. The liquid precipitation falling through the warmer air aloft will then encounter the much colder air near the surface with the possibility of freezing rain, sleet, or just a very cold rain with some ice pellets mixed in. Some of the guidance suggests surface temperatures will be at or below freezing all day Friday and some of the other guidance suggests surface temperatures will be just above freezing all day. That has huge implications regarding the exact type of precipitation as noted above and further refinements in the forecast can be expected as newer data comes in.

In the meantime, despite the cloudy skies we should stay dry for the rest of the day today. The next system will be moving our way during the overnight hours and the cold front will be arriving later Thursday. This combination will provide a widespread area of showers and some storms. Notice the 3 day QPF map on the right which suggests the potential for an inch or more of rain by the time it all comes to an end later Friday.

We will stay in the 50s tonight with some storms likely by morning, warming into the lower 60s before the cold front arrives Thursday afternoon with showers/storms likely then as well. Rapidly falling temperatures will follow the shift to northerly winds and the cloudy skies, light rain, and cold conditions will make for a very raw day Friday as mentioned above. The precipitation should have ended or be ending by Friday evening, but there may be some travel issues for the high school playoff football games that night.

At least the weekend, for the most part, looks to be dry but certainly cold. Daytime highs will struggle to get out of the 30s both days and morning lows will be in the 20s. Mostly cloudy skies and a lack of much if any sunshine will make for a raw weekend as well. NE winds Saturday will be more Easterly on Sunday and then shifting back to a more NE direction for early next week as another storm system aloft moves overhead. Right now, it appears temperatures will be above freezing for this event so just a chance of a cold rain for early next week.

Current indications suggest the system early next week will be quickly moving on eastward resulting in a cool, but dry Thanksgiving Day not only around the state but for much of the country.

As always, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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