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Pattern Change.

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Finally, a pattern change is underway signaling a shift in the wind flow aloft from the more dominant N/S or meridional flow to a more W-E or zonal flow at our latitude. Among other things, that means the flow aloft will be more favorable for us to see some moisture returning to the state which is desperately needed. Notice the 7 day QPF map on the right which for the first time in awhile is painting at least some precipitation here in Oklahoma. By the way, this particular product only goes out to 7 days, but there is decent agreement with the longer range models (i.e. the GFS and the ECMWF) for an even more significant system to impact our weather just beyond this forecast time range.

That is certainly subject to change, but the general agreement between the longer range products does provide at least some hope for some significant, very badly needed moisture. In the short term, there is also a chance of moisture, but it will not amount to much. Very cold and very dry air is currently in place and although a rather well defined piece of energy aloft will be moving over the state, the lower levels are just too dry for much, if any, accumulation. Some flurries should be developing overnight and into Tuesday morning with possibly a dusting to an inch or so for the more western counties. The second map on the right is the projected QPF map for days 1-2 and again shows the possibility of some snow for tonight into early Tuesday.

There will also be a chance of at least a few showers over the course of the coming weekend and for early next week. But, as mentioned it, now appears the more significant system will be just beyond this forecast cycle.

In the meantime, the very cold, dry air now over us will keep temperatures below freezing through the day Tuesday. In fact, some locations could see single digits tonight and 20s will be the general rule for Tuesday. At least the winds will be much lighter with northerly winds of only 5-10 mph for much of the day. We should also have some sunshine by afternoon

After that, 40s during the day Wednesday and 50s for Thursday for a short term warming trend along with southerly winds and lots of sunshine. Temperatures will be back into the 40s behind a weak frontal boundary for Friday into the weekend along with more clouds and a chance of a few light showers. Then, the potential for a more significant weather maker along about the Tue/Wed time frame of next week.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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