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Interesting Pattern Developing for the Weekend and into Next Week.

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The weather pattern over the coming weekend and into the following week is getting more and more interesting with each update cycle. The latest and greatest data now has a much stronger precipitation signal across the state than was the case just 24 hours ago and with cold air in place that makes wintry weather a distinct possibility. There are still a number of uncertainties that will not likely be resolved until each storm system makes landfall along the W coast and we have better data sampling to work with.

So, with that caveat in mind here is how this pattern now looks to be shaping up. First up is a cold front that will be slowly moving across the state during the day Friday. Southerly winds ahead of it and cloudy skies will keep temperatures above freezing for tonight. Also, the winds will be diminishing to 10-15 mph which will help with the fire danger situation. As the front moves through, winds will shift to the N and NE followed by falling temperatures. Ahead of the cold front, temperatures will be reaching the 50s and even the 60s for the more southern counties, but behind the cold front temperatures will be falling back into the 30s by afternoon/evening. Obviously, timing will be everything regarding temperatures at your house during the day Friday. There will also be a chance of some light rain showers, possibly even some freezing rain along the OK/KS state line.

Then the colder air will be settling in for Friday night with temperatures in the 20s to start the day Saturday. Another chance of light rain during that time frame will most likely be in the form of freezing rain or some ice pellets, but amounts are expected to be very light so no major impacts are now expected. That event will quickly be ending during the morning hours but brisk northerly winds and cloudy skies will keep temperatures below 40 for the most part.

Sunday is when the first of several, stronger storm systems aloft will be moving over the state and also has the most uncertainty as that system is still out over the Pacific Ocean at this time. At any rate, all indications now point to a wintry weather event with temperatures in the 20s that morning and in the 30s that afternoon. The vertical temperature profile is what will determine the location of the wintry mix/snow line and that continues to fluctuate. Bottom line is that some locations will likely receive several inches of snow that afternoon or evening and other locations could end up with a mixed bag of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain.

Monday will be a transition day and should be primarily dry but cold with highs in the 30s to near 40. Tuesday is still shaping up to be wet and cold, but again the vertical profile of temperature is uncertain enough to make a determination of the rain/snow/sleet/freezing rain locations a tough call. At this point, it certainly looks like many if not most of us will end up with at least several inches of wintry stuff by the time it is all said and done. Notice the 7 day QPF map on the right which suggests ½ inch or more of liquid equivalent during that time frame, much of which will be wintry.

On top of that, this more active pattern that has recently evolved will continue into the latter part of the week when another storm system will be coming our way with the potential for another round of wintry weather along about Fri/Sat of next week.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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