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Still Watching Round 4 for Early Next Week.

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If this first week of February has seemed on the chilly, side the numbers certainly confirm that. So far, this is the tenth coldest start to the month of February on record but then a lot of the month is still ahead of us. Fortunately, we will see some moderation just in time for the weekend, but not for long.

Despite southerly winds, cloudy skies and snow in some areas have kept us below freezing again today. Most of the snow has been confined to the extreme southern counties, but flurries or even a brief dusting will be possible just about anywhere through the early night tonight. By Saturday morning, cloudy skies and a light southerly wind should combine to keep us from cooling off too much and we expect to start the day in the low 20s at most locations. Some patchy fog will also be possible early in the day. A few breaks in the clouds during the day along with continued southerly winds will bring afternoon temperatures above freezing for the first time in several days and some locations may even make it to 40.

Not for long though as northerly winds will be returning Sunday morning and with lots of snow on the ground in KS, temperatures will once again struggle to make it above the freezing mark. Also, another disturbance aloft will be moving overhead late Sunday and into the day Monday which will bring with it another chance of wintry precipitation. Right now this system does not appear to be all that strong, but that is certainly subject to change. The data still has not converged toward a consistent solution that would provide more confidence in the timing/amounts/location of this next round of wintry weather. The consensus would suggest some light snow developing late in the day Sunday or that night continuing off and on through Monday and ending Tuesday morning. Some heavier bands may occur, but given the lack of amplitude aloft, it now appears that another inch or two should be the general rule. The next couple of model runs should enable us to fine tune these preliminary projections.

One thing that is for sure will be continued cold through early next week with daytime highs remaining below freezing through Tuesday. Barring any surprises, we will finally start to moderate by the middle to latter part of the week. At least temperatures will be trending closer to normal by then for the first time this month.

Also, notice the updated 8-14 day trends on the right for temperature and precipitation. As you can see, we will certainly be trending towards much warmer weather during that time frame as well as a much less active weather pattern with little or no precipitation expected.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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