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Wednesday Morning Update

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The wind advisory will expire at 4am this morning but strong winds will continue for the next few hours across northern OK before the pressure gradient relaxes.  Wind speeds during the past 10 hours have been in the 40 mph range with a few 50 mph gusts.   The highest wind speed from Tulsa International has been 53 mph.  The highest across eastern OK has been a 58 mph gust near Porter.  The cold front did not produce very many showers last night across far east-central OK and western Arkansas.  We'll have another chance for showers and storms Saturday morning and possibly Sunday, but the Sunday system may be too far west to impact our area.   

The temps today will be mild with morning lows in the 30s and afternoon highs in the mid-50s.  The north winds will drop into the 10 to 20 mph range later this afternoon with mostly clear sky.   

Thursday the southwest surface winds will increase during the midday period with lows near 34 moving into the upper 60s near 70.  

The data has been suggesting a short wave of energy moving across the state Friday evening into Saturday morning.  This will cause a small area of low pressure to develop near the southern third of the state or possibly into north TX Friday.  South winds will attempt to bring low level moisture back into the region Friday into the Saturday morning period.  This should result in a few showers or thunderstorms across the area with deeper moisture located to our south across north TX.  The position of the surface low to out south should bring north winds to the during the day Saturday.  The GFS-EURO has both trended " wetter" for the Saturday system.   

After the Saturday morning pre-dawn period, we should be good until Sunday with another short wave will bring additional shower and storm chances to the far western part of the state.  The highest chances may remain well south or southwest of the Tulsa area.  We'll keep the pops low for the Sunday system, but the confidence for the forecast remains very low.  Model data has been very inconsistent regarding the outcome of the short waves and the precipitation forecast and coverage.  

The air mass Sunday should be cooler than Saturdays mid-60s.  We'll stick with highs in the 50s Sunday along with north winds.  

The following week should be active with several frontal intrusions and upper level waves nearby, but the overall specific forecast must unfortunately remain in a very low confidence category.  

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 82 from 5:08pm.

The daily average high is now 61 and the low is 39.

Our daily records include a high of 91 from 1967 and a low of -3 from 1948. 

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Thanks for reading the Wednesday Morning Weather discussion and blog.

 Have a super great day! 

Alan Crone

KOTV

 

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