Cool conditions this morning will give way to spring-like weather this afternoon with abundant sunshine, gusty southwest winds, and highs in the mid to upper 70s. Warmer air will be expected Thursday with highs in the lower 80s. Storm chances increase Sunday with colder air likely Monday. The fire danger will be elevated today and for the next few days.
The upper air flow is transitioning today and tomorrow from a amplified northwest flow to more of a zonal (west to east) flow. The next storm system will be developing over the desert southwest soon. The pressure will begin falling along the Rockies and central plains later today and tomorrow. In response out surface winds will be increasing from the 15 to 25 mph range with some gusts near 30 mph.
A weak boundary will slide southward Thursday night and stall across the northern third of the state. At this point, the boundary could move slightly south of Tulsa. I doubt this boundary will do much of anything but lift back northward by Friday morning to midday. Pre-dawn Friday a few storms would be likely along and northeast of the boundary, but these will more than likely remain across southeastern Kansas and western Missouri. Once again, we'll make a few mentions of a brief thunderstorm Friday morning across far NE Ok, but I'll keep the pops off the big 7 day planner.
Saturday should be another breezy and mild day with highs in the upper 70s near 80 before the storm system begins approaching the area. There remains some differences in the GFS vs the EURO and therefore our confidence in severe weather possibilities remain low at this junction of the forecast cycle. The EURO would develop a surface low closer to northwestern OK with a slower frontal passage Sunday night into Monday morning, while the GFS keeps the surface low southwest of most of the state with a faster frontal passage Sunday evening. The EURO would give us a slightly better chance of severe weather, with the GFS more scattered thunderstorms with cooler air quickly moving southward by Sunday afternoon. The GFS also depicts the possibility of moderate to heavy rainfall Sunday night across far eastern OK as the upper air flow becomes nearly parallel with the surface boundary for a few hours.
The frontal passage should bring much colder air to the state Monday and possibly Tuesday. Both data sets have been suggesting a polar intrusion beginning Sunday into Monday across a large portion of the Midwest to upper Midwest. This will bring very cold air back to these portions of the country and we should see temps dropping Monday with highs in the 50s. There is a chance temps could drop into the upper 40s for highs if cloud cover develops and stays across the region for most of the Monday period. This sets up a possible Freeze-Frost threat for Tuesday morning of next week.
The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 66 recorded at 4:14pm.
The normal daily average high is 70 and the low is 47.
Our daily records include a high of 90 from 2011 and 1930. The daily record low is 24 from 1914.
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