This forecast discussion is centered mainly for the northeastern OK and eastern OK vicinity. The focus for the forecast resolves around two storm systems. The first one arrives later tonight into Thursday morning with some showers and T-storms for part of northern OK and southeastern Kansas. The second system will be a multi-day event starting Saturday and ending Sunday with a chance for some significant severe weather across the state. The pattern supports cooler air next week.
Yesterday was spectacular. A true five-star weather day!
Today features warmer conditions with highs in the lower 80s, but stronger south winds will increase speeds in the 15 to 30 mph range by the afternoon. The fire danger may increase across some portions of eastern OK due to the gusty winds, but recent rainfall and the green-up will help to elevate some of the fire spread.
A storm system is moving across the Rockies this morning. A surface area of low pressure is expected to deepen across southeastern Colorado with a dry line extending southward into the panhandle regions. Later this afternoon ,strong winds aloft will move across the northwestern OK and southwestern Kansas vicinity helping to develop scattered super cell thunderstorms along the dry line in western OK. These storms should be severe with very large hail, damaging winds, and possibly a tornado warning or two. The main locations for the severe weather threats should remain west of the I-35 corridor into the west-central portion of the state late this afternoon and evening. The 4k NSSL WRF indicates the potential for a small MCS moving across southern OK along the Red River Valley late tonight into the early Thursday morning hour. This small cluster could remain severe with some severe wind gusts and hail.
A surface cold front should move into northern OK by early Thursday morning. This will be the time that some activity should move into northeastern OK and southeastern Kansas. Most of the available data suggest the storms will weaken below severe limits once they move into our area. But many times, the presence of a low level jet can help to keep the storms strong to severe, even in the early morning hours. Again, the data suggest limited potential energy and instability once the storms move further eastward. Some operational data also suggest the early Thursday morning storms will be post frontal across northern OK.
Thursday afternoon the cold front will move southeast across the state and additional scattered storms will be possible over far eastern OK and western Arkansas.
Friday should be a dry day with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. But the front will lift northward as a warm front Saturday morning as another very strong upper level system nears the Rockies. A few storms will be possible Saturday morning across far northern OK along and north of this retreating boundary. Saturday afternoon and evening will begin a very active weather pattern for the central and southern plains.
All data now support the warm-moist sector enveloping the state into southern and central Kansas Saturday afternoon and evening. This creates extreme instability and convective energy for the across Oklahoma. As upper level energy moves into the region, storms are expected to form across the western third of the state and move northeast with time. These storms should be severe with all modes of severe weather possible. Sunday the system will be moving eastward and additional storms are likely to develop Sunday afternoon across eastern OK with parameters favorable for severe weather. We encourage all residents in the state to remain aware of this weather system due to the potential for severe weather. We're still a few days out for the arrival. Things can and do change. Check back often for updates. I will refrain from trying to "time" the system at this point in the forecast cycle. Odds are the "timing" present in the current data will still change a few times before the end of the week.
After the surface cold front moves southeast Sunday night, the upper level low could linger near the Missouri Valley Monday into Tuesday. This may bring some precipitation back into SE Kansas, SW Missouri, and far NE OK during this period with cooler air and north winds. Yesterday's EURO was extremely cold, but not totally unrealistic based on upstream temps. We're going to keep lower readings in our forecast for early next week, and these numbers could end up cooler! But the main focus for the short term will be the storm chances Thursday morning, and then for the weekend. We'll be refining next week's temps a little later this week.
The official high in Tulsa yesterday was76 recorded at 3:48pm.
The normal daily average high is 74 and the low is 52.
Our daily records include a high of 93 from 1958 and a low of 36 from 1909.
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Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!