The cold front is located well southeast of the area but a few showers will continue across extreme southeastern and east-central Ok for the next hour or so. Afternoon highs will be in the mid or upper 60s in Tulsa with a sun-cloud mix by midday to afternoon. Another wave of energy arrives later tonight into Wednesday morning across the eastern third of the state bringing a few showers to the area. These will not be severe. The cooler air will remain through the middle of the week before warm and muggy conditions arrive by the second half of the weekend into early next week.
The upper air pattern will keep the cooler conditions into the central plains including northern OK and southern Kansas through Thursday. We finally received some rainfall yesterday in the Tulsa metro, but the totals were lower than model output suggestions. Locations southeast of Tulsa did pick up 1 to 2 inches of rainfall with some localized higher amounts. A flash flood watch remains in effect for the next few hours across far southeastern OK and east-central OK. This does not include the Tulsa metro.
Morning clouds should slowly thin out with a sun-cloud mix this afternoon along with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Another wave should arrive on the back-side of the front later tonight into Wednesday morning resulting in scattered showers or an area of light rain developing across a small part of eastern OK. This area may be close to the Tulsa metro and we'll keep a slightly higher pop than model data suggest at this point. Keep in mind, this may stay southeast of Tulsa.
Wednesday morning's temps should start in the mid to upper 40s and may remain in the lower 60s for the afternoon.
By Thursday into Friday, the upper air pattern from the northwest to the southeast may bring a few weak systems into the area with a chance of a few late night and early morning scattered showers or storms. This will be represented by a slight pop for the Friday morning, Saturday morning, and Sunday morning time periods. The location for these low pops will be northern OK into southern Kansas, roughly along and north of the highway 412 corridor. Locations south of this line should remain void of shower or storm chances for the late extended portion of the forecast (Thursday through the weekend).
The data support another air-mass change by the second half of the weekend. Southerly surface flow will bring low level moisture back into the area. Daytime temps will begin climbing into the 80s. The upper air flow will transition back to a southwest flow aloft pattern next week. This will bring the warmer and muggy conditions back to the state and eventually storm chances next week.
The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 80 recorded at 9:30am. Temps dropped into the upper 50s and mid-60s behind the boundary for most of the day.
The normal daily average high is 79 and the low is 58.
The daily records include a high of 93 from 1911 and a low of 41 from 1971.
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