Right on schedule, we experienced a few showers and storms yesterday afternoon and evening as the first in a series of upper level waves moved across the state. I anticipate another wave arriving this afternoon or evening bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms to southern Kansas and part of northeastern OK. Tonight's wave may have a slightly higher coverage compared to yesterday's event. Our current pop of 30% will be increased to account for the larger area and the higher chance of folks experiencing some showers or storms.
We think the timing for the bulk of this next round may be tonight, mainly after 7pm and continuing through the 2am hour before exiting the state into northwestern Arkansas. We're not anticipating any big severe weather chances, but one or two storms may be strong or severe with some hail and gusty winds.
We do have a small wave approaching southern Kansas midday. So there could be a few spotty showers along the OK-Kansas state line region around noon or so, but I do not anticipate these amounting to much.
The third and final wave with this current upper air flow (northwest) will arrive near the area late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. This wave will quickly exit the region and storms should also quickly decrease early Sunday morning along the northern third of the state. This chance will remain low, mainly in the 20 to 30% range.
A elevated mixing layer (warm air aloft) will overspread the area Sunday mid-morning through afternoon effectively capping the atmosphere for several days as the upper air pattern changes to a southwest flow aloft. This pattern is typical for May and will eventually bring a storm chance back to the area sometime late next week. GFS and EURO data support keeping the next upper level system across the desert southwest through most of next week. By Friday into next weekend, our storm chances should increase. Before this occurs, we anticipate a return to warm and muggy conditions with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s for the week with morning lows in the 60s. Gusty south winds will be likely for the entire week. Low level trajectories will improve by Tuesday into Wednesday and will bring higher low level moisture content back into the eastern third of the state. This will occur with dew point temps in the 60s common place by the middle to end of next week.
The short term forecast will keep us nice and cool this morning with some locations across far eastern OK and northwestern Arkansas near daily record lows. Afternoon highs today will range in the lower 70s with east to southeast winds at 10 to 15 mph. This evening winds will back from the east-northeast as the next wave passes the area. Temps Saturday will start in the lower 50s and finish in the lower 70s. Sunday starts around 55 and ends around 77.
The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 69 recorded at 1:48pm.
The normal daily average high is 79 and the low is 59.
Our daily records include a high of 94 from 1931 and 1911. The daily record low is 40 from 1907.
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