Don't Look Now, But Our Rain Chances are Increasing!

Hate to get our hopes up too high, but the prospects for some decent rainfall across the state still look promising over the course of the next week or so. Notice the 7 day QPF map on the right which still has the heavier totals over the more western counties, but heavier totals are now showing up just north of us in KS as well. Obviously, that is all subject to some modifications over the next few days but at least the wet signal has been consistent for several days now. Almost afraid to say anything positive about this system for fear I will scare it off!

The longer range guidance continues to bring a vigorous upper level disturbance aloft out of the southern Rockies and right over us during this forecast cycle. Often there will be some minor disturbances out ahead of the main storm center which will be difficult if not impossible to foresee more than a day or so in advance. For that reason, don't be surprised if we have some scattered showers/storms on Fri/Sat/Sun well in advance of the main show which should be Mon/Tue for our side of the state. That is why the forecast has relatively low rain chances through the weekend but better chances for Mon/Tue. And, since this is still May some severe storms may also occur although conditions do not presently appear very favorable for an outbreak of severe storms.

Temperatures through this forecast cycle will be impacted by the brisk southerly winds, cloud cover, and any showers/storms that can develop. Partly sunny skies for Thu and mostly cloudy to overcast skies will be the general rule through the weekend and into next week. This will bring our daytime highs down a little closer to normal with low-mid 80s generally expected. However, the higher moisture content and the southerly winds will also keep our nights from cooling much with morning lows only in the upper 60s to around 70.

Also the winds will also give us a bit of a break as the pressure gradient will relax somewhat as the storm system aloft gradually weakens and drifts eastward. Southerly winds on the order of 10-15 mph tonight and a more S/SE wind on the order of 10-20 mph with only a few higher gusts are expected on Thu. The winds Fri/Sat will also be from a more S/SE direction and generally less than 20 mph during the day and less than that at night which will certainly be a welcome relief. However, these winds will maintain high dew point temperatures well into the 60s so the minimum relative humidity during the heat of the day will be near the 50% level.

So, very warm and humid with at least a potential for showers/storms through early next week along with somewhat lighter southerly winds. Just hoping we also get some badly needed moisture out of this system before summer really gets here.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot