Thursday Morning Update

The main focus of the forecast continues to be a big upper level low centered near Nevada and southern California this morning.  The southwest flow aloft pattern will continue to keep us warm and muggy for the next several days.  The upper low will slowly move eastward during the next few days increasing our rain and thunderstorm chances for the state.  The higher chances Thursday through Saturday will remain across the western half of the state, but we'll have a chance for a few showers or storms Friday into the weekend.  The main upper low will drift closer to the state Monday and Tuesday.  This will increase our rain and storm chances across the eastern third of the state during these periods.  The threat for severe weather is not zero, but should remain low with the main threats being wind gusts with some marginal hail.  While the main upper level positioning of the low is now consistent in the model runs into the weekend, the exact location and timing of showers and storms across eastern OK may be a little tough to peg at this hour.  The general thinking is that scattered storm chances will occur during the afternoon into the evening hours with a few overnight leftovers each day.   

The temperatures will continue to slowly drop a degree or two each day regarding the afternoon highs.  We're expecting highs today in the mid to upper 80s with south winds around 10 to 20 mph. Muggy conditions will prevail. 

Temperatures this weekend will start in the upper 60s and lower 70s for morning lows and finish in the lower to mid-80s.  Afternoon highs Monday and Tuesday could be anywhere from the upper 70s to the lower 80s with cloudy and damp conditions.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms should become more numerous early next week. As this happens, localized pockets of rain cooled air will knock temps into the 70s.

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 87 from 4:14pm.

The normal daily average high is 81 and low is 61.

Our daily records include a high of 94 from 2005 and a low of 44 from 1931. 

I'll be discussing the forecast on numerous Radio Oklahoma news network affiliates across the state this morning through the noon hour.  

You'll hear our forecast on numerous Tulsa metro "Clear Channel Radio Stations, including KMOD, The Twister, The Buzz, and The Beat. 

Thanks for reading the Thursday Morning weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great day! 

Alan Crone

KOTV