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Fewer Showers/Storms by Sunday.

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Spotty showers/storms popping up this afternoon will continue into the early evening hours before dissipating with the setting sun, then redeveloping again during the day tomorrow. As was the case yesterday, a few of these will be locally quite strong with brief periods of heavy rainfall, lightning, and localized gusty winds. But, this is not a severe weather situation nor will the storms that pop up again on Saturday pose a severe threat. Also, as has been the case, the more eastern counties will have the greatest chance of catching a shower/storm with the chances dropping off quickly going west.

Late morning through the afternoon hours will be the best time on Saturday with any showers/storms again dissipating with the setting sun. For Sunday, even fewer showers/storms are expected and again most likely for the extreme eastern counties for those few that do occur.

The disturbance aloft that is helping set off these showers/storms is located across extreme S Ark and has been nearly stationary the last day or two. It will continue to weaken with time and have less and less of an influence on our weather. That is why the scattered showers/storms yesterday, today, and again tomorrow will become even less likely by Sunday and going into next week. The daytime heating has also been a contributor to the development of these showers/storms which is why they are most likely from late morning through the early evening hours, then dissipating after dark. That is also why we will have fair to partly cloudy overnight skies and a heavy dew followed by partly cloudy to mostly cloudy daytime skies.

As we go into next week and the system aloft weakens, then conditions aloft will not be as favorable for showers/storms to form. Thus, fewer showers/storms for Sunday and Monday are currently anticipated and little or no rain for the next few days after that. Also, as the system aloft weakens, its surface reflection will become diffuse allowing our winds to veer from an E to NE direction to a more southerly direction by Sunday. As the winds return to a more southerly direction, the pressure gradient will begin to tighten up so the light easterly winds of the last few days will only extend into Saturday followed by brisk southerly winds on Sunday and gusty southerly winds after that.

These changes will also impact temperatures. Overnight lows will remain in the 60s for tonight and Saturday night, but more likely into the lower 70s for much of next week. Our daytime highs will be well into the 80s for the weekend but at or perhaps even above 90 going into next week. There is not a lot of agreement with the longer range guidance for later next week. The ECMWF suggests an early summer cool front arriving to bring a rather robust rain signal. On the other hand, the GFS has a much drier signal for us through that period and keeps the front much further north.

As the 8-14 day graphics on the right suggest, it appears the ECMWF may have a better handle on the situation as that second week in June just may be a little wetter and not quite as hot as normal. Typically, our wettest time of the year is coming to an end by the middle of June so we can only hope that this will indeed verify.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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