Showers and thunderstorms may be possible for a few more hours early this morning across part of northern OK. Afternoon highs will move into the upper 80s along with gusty south winds at 15 to 25 mph. Muggy and warm conditions will persist for the next few days before unsettled weather returns by the end of the week into the weekend.
Our pattern has changed. Last week featured cool and damp conditions with north winds and temps below the seasonal average. This week will feature south winds, muggy conditions, and highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. The pattern will allow a frontal boundary to sag into the region Wednesday night and Thursday morning setting the stage for several days of thunderstorm chances. The severe weather season has been quiet to date, but we should see an increase in severe weather potential for the end of the week into the weekend.
Late yesterday afternoon, a complex of thunderstorms began to develop across Kansas. The tail end of this activity dropped southeast and brushed northern OK around midnight. Some of these storms continued moving southeast into northern OK producing gusty winds and small hail. As I post this morning (355am) some storm activity remains across portions of the area, but the threat of severe weather will remain low. A few severe storms will be possible with damaging winds and some hail the main threats. These showers and storms should diminish with time through the early morning hours, but a few additional storms may develop later this afternoon across northern OK and southern Kansas. This chance will remain near 20% to 30%.
Tuesday and Wednesday will feature increasing temps in the mid-levels of the atmosphere which will act to suppress thunderstorm development for most of our area. We'll keep these departs void of precip. Thursday through the weekend will feature storm chances, and some will more than likely be severe.
Most data support a surface area of low pressure developing across the high plains of Texas with a stationary boundary draped across either northern Ok or southern Kansas Thursday and Friday. This will act to focus thunderstorm development along this boundary for the end of the week into the weekend until the boundary finally moves southward Sunday. This pattern will support pockets of heavy rainfall across northern OK and southern Kansas, but will also support the potential for severe weather. An east to west boundary with a surface low to the southwest combined with copious amounts of low level moisture could lead to all modes of severe weather by the end of the week. But the data this morning offers some controversy on the position of the boundary. The NAM is more southward across northern OK while the GFS brethren keep the boundary across southern Kansas until Sunday. Regardless, at this point, we'll keep a chance of storms in our forecast for the end of the week.
Our severe weather season has been quiet, but we're not finished with the threat for severe weather despite the arrival of June. Climate and weather history provides plenty of historical evidence of severe weather episodes in June for northern Ok, and our approaching pattern will support the chance for strong to severe storms by the end of the week.
In summary, a few storms will continue for the next few hours before diminishing. Highs today will range in the upper 80s with another slight chance of isolated storms this afternoon or early evening.
The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 86 recorded at 3:48pm.
The normal daily average high is 84 and the low is 64.
Our daily records include a high of 102 from 1911 and a low of 49 from 1907.
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