Good morning. Some patchy fog is possible in a few of the valley this morning before sunny and warm conditions prevail this afternoon. After cool morning temps in the upper 50s and lower 60s, highs will be near normal this afternoon. Storm chances will quickly arrive late tonight into Thursday. A few may be severe.
The pattern will support another short wave dropping into the area tonight into Thursday with increasing rain and thunderstorm chances for the area. Today will be the warmest day of the week with highs nearing 86 along with south winds around 10 to 15 mph by afternoon. Sunshine will be abundant. The short wave dropping out of the Rockies will cause storms to form into a complex and track into our area by pre-dawn Thursday morning. The main threat will be pockets of heavy rainfall, but there will be a low chance of the storms producing some damaging wind gusts during the pre-dawn hours of Thursday. Some of the high res data suggest storms may approach the northern OK area as early as 1am to 2am. There may be some linger showers during the early part of the day across northern OK.
At the surface, a cold front will slide southeast Thursday with north winds by the afternoon across northern OK. This boundary may provide additional thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening across far southeastern OK, but we anticipate the system to exit northern OK by midday to late afternoon. Highs Thursday could stay in the upper 70s with mostly cloudy conditions. Storms that do form later tomorrow afternoon across southeastern OK, north Texas, and western Arkansas would more than likely be severe with large hail and damaging winds in a few locations.
Friday and Saturday appear dry and mild by June standards with highs in the 80s.
The weekend should support increasing mid-level temps acting to cap most of the atmosphere across the state from surface based thunderstorms. The data supports the ridge and elevated mixing layer to leave the northern third of the state in a vulnerable position for thunderstorms. Southern Kansas appears to have a much higher likelihood of storms Sunday, and some of these will more than likely be severe with large hail and damaging winds the main threat. It's unclear how far southeast any thunderstorms may advance Sunday into Monday but we'll respect the pattern and keep the chance relatively low for northern OK.
The medium range data supports slightly heights rising across the southern plains early next week as the main belt of westerlies shifts slightly northward. The main trough will be positioned across the western U.S. with several waves rounding the base and ejecting into the central plains. This pattern will keep a very active pattern underway for the central and northern high plains. The northern OK vicinity will remain on the northern edge of any storm activity for a few days. Our mid-level ridge and capping inversion will more than likely weaken and shift southward by the middle to end of next week allowing another chance for storms.
This pattern will eventually strengthen in about 2 weeks with the mid-level ridge becoming our dominate weather maker. Until this happens, we'll keep seeing occasional chances for storms in the forecast.
The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 79 recorded at 3:55pm.
The normal daily average high is 86 and the low is 67.
Our daily records include a high of 100 from 1924. The daily record low is 51 from 1955.
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