Good morning! We're tracking another decaying complex across the state this morning, but this one will not survive into our area. A few showers or storms may form early this morning across part of northern OK as a weak disturbance drifts into our area. Another chance for a few showers or storms will remain later during the day with the favored areas across southern OK. Afternoon highs will range in the mid-80s along with mostly to partly cloudy conditions. The confidence on exact locations for showers or storms today is low.
The overall pattern will slowly change during the next few days, but not enough to take away the chance for the late night and early morning storm complexes to roll across part of the area. We may see an additional storm complex nearing the state overnight into Thursday morning before the chance for showers and storms will begin lifting northward away from the state. Most data support a mid-level ridge of high pressure building across most of the region for the next few days. This will eventually limit or even end our precip chances while the temps will start to rise. There will be a weakness on the top side of the ridge. The GFS suggest another boundary could ease into southern Kansas and part of northern OK by early next week with some additional scattered showers or storms. This is also the time of year that model data tends to overestimate the southward extent of boundary intrusions and its worth noting the EURO model is keeping this boundary northward in south-central Kansas. Regardless, our forecast will continue to keep the chance in the forecast today and Thursday but only a slight chance Friday.
The weekend will feature warmer and breezy conditions with morning lows in the mid-70s and afternoon highs in the lower90s. Temperature heat index values this weekend into early next week may approach the 96 to 100 degree range.
The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 89 recorded at 2:51pm.
The normal daily average high is 90 and the low is 70.
Our daily records include a high of 105 from 2012 and 1933. The daily record low is 52 from 1974.
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