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Thursday Morning Update

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The pattern remains highly chaotic in the model data, but the observational network continues to support slight chances of showers and storms for the next few days.  A few storms developed yesterday afternoon and evening, but not nearly the coverage suggested by the various model solutions.  Once again the data is suggesting some thunderstorms for some locations today, but the forcing processes will be very localized and limited.  The end result will be a chance for a few scattered showers and storms with high temps in the mid to upper 80s.  Any storms would produce some moderate to heavy downpours but the chance for any given location will remain low.   An outflow boundary should be near the Tulsa area this morning before wafting northeast of the area later today.  There is an MCV located across central Kansas this morning with some thunderstorms, but this should also remain north of the state.   

We think the temperatures in the mid-level of the atmosphere will be warming a few degrees over the weekend.  This should help to limit the precipitation for most of the area.  But…there will be a weakness in the mid-level ridge across far eastern OK and western Arkansas and a few isolated showers or storms will be possible this weekend mainly in these areas.  This chance will be represented by a low chance in the weekend forecast, but most folks will remain dry Saturday afternoon.  

Saturday night into Sunday morning the NAM ( and a few others) are hinting at another MCS attempting to move into the region from south-central Kansas.  I'll continue keeping a slight chance for showers and storms in the Saturday night and Sunday morning forecast for locations along the OK-Kansas state line.  This pop will be at 20%, but could easily go up depending upon what happens Saturday afternoon to our north. 

Next week the GFS continues to support a weak boundary sneaking southward into northern OK and southern Kansas with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms.  The EURO seems to keep this boundary northward into central Kansas.   The upper air flow will be stronger to the north of our area, and any frontal boundaries will more than likely remain north of the state until around Tuesday or Wednesday.  This is when we'll introduce a small chance of storms for part of northern OK. 

Temperatures today will move into the mid and upper 80s with a gradual warming trend into the weekend.  Southerly surface flow will continue to enforce the low level moisture fields and this will keep increasing our temperature heat index values through the early portion of next week.  Our heat index values may climb to near 100 degrees by the first part of next week. 

The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 90 recorded at 4:11pm.

The normal daily average high is 90 and the low is 70.

Our daily records include a high of 105 from 1918.  The daily record low is 53 from 1974 and 1958. 

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.

I'll be discussing the weather on numerous Radio Oklahoma News network affiliates across the state through the morning hours.  

You'll also hear our forecast on Tulsa metro radio stations, including KMOD, The Twister, The Beat, and The buzz.   These stations are part of Clear Channel Communications. 

Thanks for reading the Thursday Morning weather discussion and blog. 

Have a super great and safe day!

Alan Crone


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