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Saturday Storms and Summer Heat

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Slowly but surely, I'm having to use "hot" more than "warm" and "sun" more than "storms" in my forecasts. However, the storm chances are still hanging around even as a summer-like heat dome tries to build into the region. In fact, severe weather may be in the mix late in the day Saturday for portions of Green Country.

For the rest of your Friday, clouds, wind and warmth will be the only three weather issues we'll have on the plate. Plenty of moisture is hanging around, but there's very little trigger for the storms to form from this warm, moist air mass today. Saturday will be a different story, however. An approaching wave in the jet stream will send a cold front southward just enough to give a focus for storm development in northern Oklahoma Saturday. We're at the southern fringe of decent wind shear with plenty of instability on hand to fuel the storms. The timing and evolution of these storms is still very much in question, which is why there is a broad-brushed low-end threat for severe storms as shown in the map above.

Some of our computer model solutions point to the best chance of storms by mid-afternoon along and NW of I-44. Some other computer models bring in a complex of storms by late evening. The second scenario is more common this time of year in this pattern, but we can't rule out some afternoon storms interrupting pool parties and BBQs in parts of NE Oklahoma. There's also the chance the storms don't hold together into much of our area due to increasing mid-level temperatures and heights – also known as the CAP. The next map shows the best chance of rain for Oklahoma Saturday and Saturday night. Southeast Oklahoma, we can't rule out a few storms, but that area will be further away from the influence of the storm system. Any storms that do form will pose a risk for high winds with a secondary threat for large hail.

By Sunday morning, the storms are out of here and the heat builds. Back into the 90s we'll go by afternoon, making for a hot, but dry late afternoon and evening for Rockets over Rhema! The heat will crest on Monday with heat index values around the century mark thanks to the moisture in the air. Another round or two of storms may provide temporary heat relief between Monday night and Independence Day. A frontal boundary may stall out near the OK/KS line, allowing storms to periodically fire up nearby. Once again, the further south you live, the less of a chance any rain will make it your way.

My first prediction for the Fourth is for seasonable weather: highs in the lower 90s with a south breeze and an isolated shower or storm during the afternoon. That forecast, of course, is subject to change, but it looks promising for most celebrations that day.

Enjoy the summery weekend and be sure to follow me on Twitter: @GroganontheGO and on Facebook for the latest on the potential severe weather!

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