The forecast will continue to focus on warm and humid conditions along with storm chances for the short and midterm of the 7 day planner. A few scattered showers or storms will be possible later today across southeastern Kansas with only a slight chance elsewhere across eastern OK for the afternoon. Our weather today will be dominated by temps in the near 94 with heat index values around 100 or slightly higher. Late tonight into Tuesday morning a weak cold front will approach southern Kansas with a chance for a few thunderstorms across the southern Kansas and northern OK vicinity. We continue to see signals for higher probabilities and a larger coverage area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the boundary may sink more southward bringing the higher rain and storm chances to the region. A few of the storms may be severe.
The pattern hasn't changed too much from our thinking of late last week. The southerly surface flow continues to enforce the low level moisture across the state and muggy conditions will prevail for the next few days. The boundary currently north of the state may slide southward near the southern Kansas vicinity later today. Another central plains storm complex will more than likely develop and move southeast into part of southwestern Missouri later tonight. This complex may brush the far northeastern part of OK late tonight. More importantly, these storms to our north may help to move the frontal boundary more southward than anticipated by the model data. This would have the impact slightly higher pops Tuesday morning, and I have increased the late Monday night and Tuesday morning periods to 30% to account for this scenario.
The boundary is expected to slide near or south of the highway 412 corridor late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Storms will more than likely move into the area late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning with the higher coverage along and north of the boundary. Our pops remain at 50% for this solution. The front will remain near us Thursday before becoming diffuse or reforming north of the state Thursday night into Friday. After the Thursday period, our rain and storm chances will remain very low as the temps begin to climb back into the lower 90s. There may be a few showers or storms along the western sections of the state Thursday and Friday, but this should remain away from our immediate area.
Temperatures today may be the warmest of the next few days with highs in the 91 to 94 degree range along with temperature heat index values nearing 100 to 104. Readings Tuesday and Wednesday may drop into the mid and upper 80s with mostly to partly cloudy conditions and lighter winds. Humidity values will remain high.
The official high in Tulsa yesterday was 91 recorded at 4:03pm.
The normal daily average high is 91 and the low is 71.
Our daily records include a high of 107 from 1925. The daily record low is 57 from 1943.
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