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Not as Hot, Chances of Showers/Storms.

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As the first map on the right, courtesy of the OK Mesonet, shows we certainly did not cool off much last night. Brisk southerly winds kept temperatures in the mid-upper 70s and fortunately we have maintained brisk southerly winds through the day today. I say fortunately, since without those winds the combination of heat and humidity would be even more stifling. Heat index values are expected to be well into triple digit territory before the day is out, so those southerly winds of 20-30 mph are providing some badly needed ventilation. By the way, if we reach the expected high of 94, that will be the hottest we have been since back on May 4 when we also made it to 94. More than a little unusual that our warmest temperature so far year occurred so early in the month of May and we have not been that warm since then.

Fortunately the heat will be short-lived, at least as far as this week is concerned. A weak frontal boundary will be moving through the state Tuesday shifting our winds back to a NW and then a N/NE direction. That will bring with it a chance of showers/storms, more cloud cover, and daytime highs back into the 80s.

Showers/storms should be largely confined to the more northern counties tonight as the front approaches, then as the front moves through most of the activity shifting on southward with it during the day Tuesday. Cannot rule out an isolated severe storm or two with primarily a wind/hail threat, but this does not appear to be a significant severe weather maker. Also, any showers/storms will be rather widely scattered with the chances of any one location receiving measurable rainfall on the order of 30% tonight and Tuesday, increasing to 50% Tuesday night into the day Wednesday. Keep in mind, the chances that it will rain at all somewhere on this side of the state are more like 100%, it just will not rain everywhere.

Most of that activity should come to an end Thursday night or early Friday so that barring any surprises, our Friday evening/night time frame should be dry and closer to normal with respect to temperatures. Daytime highs will be in the 80s for Tue-Thu with morning lows generally in the 60s after the mid 70s we will have tonight. By Friday, a return to southerly winds and partly cloudy skies should get us back to near 90. The normal diurnal temperature range at this time of year is more like 92/72 for the high/low respectively.

As we head on into the coming weekend and the following week, the residual moisture will help keep temperatures close to normal. Also, there appears to be enough residual moisture for at least a very slight chance of an isolated shower/storm on just about any given day. Did not put a rain chance on each day with the 7 day on air graphic, but if you notice on the web forecast, there is a slight chance each day just for that possibility.

As you can see on the 7 day QPF map on the right, rainfall totals could be as much as an inch or more for the more western counties where the chances will also be greater, but generally lesser amounts are expected on this side of the state where the chances are reduced.

Anyway, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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