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Thursday Morning Update

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The rain started yesterday and is continuing this morning across part but not all of the state.  A flash flood watch remains for western, central, and southern OK today through Friday.  The Tulsa metro is not included in this watch.  Temperatures today will remain in the 60s near 70 for daytime highs.  These readings will set records for low maximum highs across the area today. 

A stationary boundary is located near the Red River this morning with a surface area of low pressure along the boundary across the western areas of North Texas.  This boundary will slowly move northward today as a warm front, but is exacted to remain south of the Red River Valley. The upper air flow will bring a disturbance out of the Rockies and into the state today.  These features will bring copious amounts of moisture into the state setting the stage for continued rainfall for the short term.  Any severe thunderstorm threats of wind or hail will be confined to extreme southern OK and points southward across North Texas.  Our main issue of concern will be the flash flooding potential due to some multi-inch totals across far southeastern OK.

Pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall will continue for the next several hours across part of the state.  Heaviest axis should be confined to southern OK and north TX.  But a few pockets of heavy rainfall will occur along the I-40 corridor this morning into the midday time period.  The probability for rain (the window of opportunity) will be continuing for the entire day, but there should be some breaks at times across the northern third of the state.  We may see rain all day across southern OK and part of north Texas. 

The model data continues to suggest the rain shield will move eastward by early Friday morning to midday and eventually exit the state around noon tomorrow.  The clouds will slowly thin out late tomorrow afternoon and temperatures should move into the upper 70s near 80 for Friday afternoon highs.  Friday night activities should be dry regarding precipitation chances.

This weekend the temps are expected to climb closer to seasonal averages with morning lows in the 60s and highs in the mid to upper 80s Saturday and the lower 90s Sunday.

We continue to see signals for a small complex of thunderstorms to brush the area early next week and our forecast will keep the chances near 20 to 30% for Tuesday.  A surface ridge of high pressure will be centered across the four corners area to our west allowing the front-top portion of the ridge just west of the area.  This may allow a disturbance or two to move down the front of the ridge into our area.

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.

I'll be discussing the weather on numerous Radio Oklahoma News network affiliates across the state through the morning hours.

You'll also hear our forecast on Tulsa metro radio stations, including KMOD, The Twister, The Beat, and The buzz.   These stations are part of Clear Channel Communications.

Thanks for reading the Monday Morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great and safe day!

Alan Crone


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