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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for India Fell Slightly in July

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SOURCE The Conference Board

MUMBAI, India, Aug. 20, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India declined 0.2 percent in July to 182.7 (2004 = 100), following a 0.8 percent increase in June and a 1.3 percent increase in May. Four of the eight components contributed positively to the index in July.

"Although the Leading Economic Index for India declined slightly in July, after four consecutive monthly gains, it is still consistent with an improved economic outlook for the second half of the year," said Jing Sima, Economist at The Conference Board. "A softer reading in the service sector PMI caused a small decline in the LEI in July. However, the exports and financial indicators remain strong."

Ataman Ozyildirim, Director for Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board, added: "Broad-based strength among the leading indicators throughout the last six months point to improving economic conditions for India in the second half. However, July's slight decline in the LEI highlights the challenges lying ahead where a moderation in services and manufacturing of investment goods offsets a brighter outlook from merchandise exports, stock prices, and bank credit to commercial sector."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for India, which measures current economic activity, increased 0.1 percent in July to 203.6 (2004 = 100), following a 0.6 percent decline in June and a 1.4 percent increase in May. Two of the four components contributed positively to the index in July.

The Conference Board LEI for India aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in India. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India 

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for India was launched in September 2013. Plotted back to April 1990, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of India. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, Brazil, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India include:

Interest Rate Spread (10-Year Government Bond minus 91-Day Treasury Bill) (RBI)
Stock Prices: SENSEX Average (Bombay Stock Exchange Limited)
Real effective exchange rate index, 36 countries (RBI)
Real Money Supply: M3 Bank Credit to Commercial Sector (RBI)
Merchandise Exports, f.o.b. (Ministry of Commerce and Industry)
Cargo Handled: Domestic and International (Airport Authority of India)
IP: Capital Goods (Central Statistical Organization)
PMI: Services Business Activity (HSBC/Markit)

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
https://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=13

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2014 indicator releases:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website at www.conference-board.org.

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Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes





2014

6-month


May


Jun


Jul


Jan to Jul









Leading Economic Index

181.5

r

183.0

p

182.7

p


     Percent Change

1.3

r

0.8

p

-0.2

p

2.5

     Diffusion

81.3


56.3


62.5


93.8









Coincident Economic Index

204.6

r

203.3

r

203.6

p


     Percent Change

1.4

r

-0.6

r

0.1

p

0.7

     Diffusion

75.0


75.0


50.0


50.0









n.a. Not available      p Preliminary      r Revised

Indexes equal 100 in 2004

Source: The Conference Board           All Rights Reserved

©2012 PR Newswire. All Rights Reserved.

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