Tracking A Weak Disturbance Today

Wednesday, August 20th 2014, 4:36 am

By: Alan Crone

Temperatures and humidity will continue to dominate the local weather headlines for the next few days as heat advisories and heat warnings may be required for some locations. A couple of scattered showers or storms may occur today as a weak disturbance moves northward out of north TX during the next few hours. A disturbance located across north Central Texas was able to generate a few showers and storms across the North TX and Southeastern OK vicinity late yesterday evening.   This disturbance may also provide some additional clouds at times today across the state.

The short term-medium and observational data continue to support a growing ridge of high pressure in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. This ridge will be centered to our east-southeast, but still have a major impact on our weather. There will remain the slightest of pathways in the upper air flow ( and weaknesses in the ridge) for a scattered shower or two impacting portions of the area today. This probably needs to be represented by a 20% pop.

Temperatures will start this morning in the mid-70s and climb quite rapidly into the upper 80s or lower 90s around the noon hour. Daytime highs will top out near 96 to 98 across the region with temperature heat index values nearing 100 to 104. South to southwest winds around 10 to 15 mph will be likely.

The mid-level ridge will expand slightly eastward Thursday into Friday and Saturday. Temperatures in the 5000 ft. range of the atmosphere will support hitting 100 or slightly higher at the surface. The evapotranspiration of the low level moisture from our lushes green vegetation for mid-August standards may offset the expected warm up by a few degrees. If this were a typical August with dead grass and dry soils, we would be pushing about 103 to 106 for highs this week.

As quickly as the ridge expands, I anticipate it will change shape and decrease intensity by the early to middle part of next week. This will allow a weak disturbance to approach the area early next week. It will stay north of the state. But a surface cold front will move closer to northern OK Monday or Tuesday before stalling and possibly moving northward into the central plains. This same boundary may take another run at the region by the middle to end of next week.

I also want to briefly mention some “weather talk" you may encounter over the next few days. A few of the computer models are attempting to develop a tropical system in the Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico. The steering currents could bring this system into the Gulf if it develops. A few of the runs have taken the system into the southeastern U.S. in southern Louisiana, near New Orleans next week. Yes, this could occur. But the system may also fail to develop. The system may take a totally different track. It's too early to know with any confidence any details about any tropical system and the impact on the U.S.   We'll continue to monitor the observations and model runs and post information when appropriate.

The official Tulsa high yesterday was 98 recorded at 3:54pm.   The normal average high is 93 and the low 71. Our daily records for today include a high of 106 from 1935 and 1918. The daily record low is 53 from 1967.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday Morning Weather discussion and blog.

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You'll also hear me on numerous Tulsa metro radio stations including KMOD, The Twister, The Beat, and The Sports Buzz.

I'll be discussing the forecast on Radio Oklahoma News affiliates across the state this morning through the noon hour.

Alan Crone

KOTV