A Look Ahead to the Fall Season.

As you can see from the max/min temperature map on the right, courtesy of the OK Mesonet, this has been another hot one today. That trend is expected to continue not only through the coming weekend but well into the following week as well. By late next week, a brief break appears likely as a front will be making a run at the state bringing more clouds and at least a chance of showers/storms along with some relief from the heat.

Having said that, don't expect this next system to be a repeat of what we have enjoyed on several other occasions this summer as it will not be that strong. However, it should at least trend temperatures back to near normal instead of running 4-8 degrees above normal which is what we will have prior to that systems arrival.

So, with that in mind, look for daytime highs to be well into the 90s if not near triple digits through the weekend and into early next week. Not only that, but with dew point temperatures holding in the low 70s this afternoon and likely to remain in the upper 60s to low 70s through this forecast cycle, the combination of heat and humidity will be at uncomfortable, if not dangerous levels. The minimum relative humidity will be dropping off to the low 40% range during the heat of the day, but the combination of heat and humidity will result in a heat index well over 100 and perhaps over 105. Anytime the heat index is expected to be at or above 105 that will trigger heat advisories due to the increased danger of heat related health issues.

In the meantime, our rain chances will be in the slim to none category for this side of the state. There will be at least a chance of showers/storms for the more western counties and up into KS, but that activity will be falling apart as it drifts eastward. Cannot completely rule out an isolated shower/storm or two here in E OK , but nothing that would be organized nor widespread. Quite frankly, the main impact of the activity that does develop to our west would be a few more clouds in the sky which may be just enough to keep us below triple digits on some days.

Looking further ahead, the outlook for the month of September as well as the 90 day outlook for the fall months of Sep-Nov have been issued by the Climate Prediction Center. Those maps are on the right and are highly dependent on the ENSO cycle and whether or not an El Nino actually develops and how strong it will be. Those questions are very difficult but the current trends do suggest an El Nino is developing. If so, its major impacts for our part of the world are primarily during the cool season, especially during the late winter.

The categories require some explanation as well. The above and below normal indicators for temperature and precipitation are obvious, but notice there are large sections of the country, including portions of our state, that are in the EC category. That stands for Equal Chances and simply means there is no clear cut signal suggesting the trends will go one way or the other. In other words there is a 1/3 chance that the category will be normal, a 1/3 chance it will be above normal, and a 1/3 chance it will be below normal. That may or may not be very helpful, but that is the best that we can do at this time.

So, stay tuned, stay cool, and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot