Rain On The Way

Good morning. We're continuing to focus the forecast on rain and storm chances for the next few days as a slow moving storm system draws near the area. A few showers are located to our west and northwest this morning and should remain west of most of the area today. But later tonight a band or two of storms will migrate eastward into our area, probably around midnight, and move slowly across eastern OK during early Friday morning. We're not anticipating severe weather, but some locally heavy ...

Thursday, August 28th 2014, 4:29 am



Good morning.  We're continuing to focus the forecast on rain and storm chances for the next few days as a slow moving storm system draws near the area.  A few showers are located to our west and northwest this morning and should remain west of most of the area today.  But later tonight a band or two of storms will migrate eastward into our area, probably around midnight, and move slowly across eastern OK during early Friday morning.  We're not anticipating severe weather, but some locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds may occur in a few locations.

The upper level system is still west of the area (over portions of Colorado) and is not expected to arrive across southwestern Kansas until Friday morning.  The trough will be near the Missouri Valley Saturday and moving slowly eastward.  Our chances for showers and storms will remain in the area as the upper trough stays near the area.  

The latest data supports some Friday morning to midday activity followed by some additional development Friday night into Saturday morning.  This should keep the Friday highs in the lower to mid-80s with light southeast winds.  Saturday's highs will stay in the upper 80s with mostly to partly cloudy conditions.

Some model data brings a small area of storms back into northeastern OK and southeastern Kansas Sunday, and another batch into the area early Monday morning, but this solution seems suspect and we'll keep the forecast dry for both Sunday and a Monday Labor Day.  Monday's temps should jump back into the mid-90s for highs.

The westerlies appear to be slowly migrating southward (which is normal for early September) and should help to focus a few more systems near the state next week.  But EURO data this morning doesn't bring the flow quite as far south as the previous few runs.  So we'll keep a slight mention of showers and storms in the Tuesday forecast for northern OK but we'll also keep the highs in the lower 90s with no wind shift.  Needless to post, but the confidence in the extended forecast is not exactly high.

The official Tulsa high yesterday was 97 recorded at 3:35pm.    The normal average high is 91 and the low 69.  Our daily records for today include a high of 104 from 1963 and 1912.  The daily record low is 53 from 1967. 

Thanks for reading the Wednesday Morning Weather discussion and blog.

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.  

You'll also hear me on numerous Tulsa metro radio stations including KMOD, The Twister, The Beat, and The Sports Buzz. 

I'll be discussing the forecast on Radio Oklahoma News affiliates across the state this morning through the noon hour. 

Alan Crone

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