Tracking Some AM Storms

Tuesday, September 2nd 2014, 3:52 am

By: Alan Crone

Good morning. We're tracking storms this morning across southern Kansas and northern OK. Some of these were quite severe late yesterday evening with wind damage reported in a few spots across northern OK and a tornado or two in southern Kansas. There will remain a threat for a few severe storms this morning across part of northern OK but the severe threat should be decreasing soon. Pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall may occur in a few locations along the state line early this morning. The hi-res models continue suggesting a southward push of the precip during the morning hours across northern OK, but so far we've seen no major signs of this occurring with warm air aloft position southward of the southern Kansas storms. But we'll keep the same 40% in the forecast for the short term until we see exactly how the atmosphere is going to respond.

Temperatures this morning will remain in the 60s and 70s followed by afternoon highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. A few additional scattered storms will be possible this afternoon but the coverage would be low.   A weak boundary will be near the northern third of the state tonight with a few additional storms attempting to develop near and north of this boundary this evening into pre-dawn Wednesday before moving northeast away from our area early Wednesday morning. The remainder of the forecast will center on breezy and warm conditions with highs in the mid-90s. Another boundary will arrive sometime Friday into Saturday bringing a round of showers and storms followed by a modest cool down in the 80s.

A complicated pattern existed yesterday afternoon and evening across northern OK as a weak cold front approached from the northwest and an outflow boundary across northern OK moved northwest. Scattered storms developed yesterday afternoon and evening near these features and moved southeast yesterday evening producing some severe weather.

Later tonight the boundary will be lifting northward and there's a chance we'll see more storms overnight into Wednesday morning along the state line region. Some of these storms could produce some marginally severe hail and gusty winds. This chance for the Tulsa metro remains around 20%.

Once the boundary lifts northward away from the state, the mid-level ridge will again be the dominate feature for a few days with temps in the 10,000 ft level capping the atmosphere from any storm chances.

Another disturbance will move across the central plains by this weekend helping to push a cold front southward either Friday night or Saturday with additional storm chances for the state. A few of these could be strong to severe. Temperatures behind the boundary are expected to drop into the 80s for the weekend highs.

The model data is not consistent with some of the suggestions for next week but the pattern would support a few more storm chances next week with periodic systems nearing the region.

The official Tulsa high yesterday was 97 recorded at 3:07pm.   The normal average high is 90 and the low 68. Our daily records for today include a high of 109 from 1939. The daily record low is 51 from 1974.

Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning Weather discussion and blog.

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I'll be discussing the forecast on Radio Oklahoma News affiliates across the state this morning through the noon hour.

Alan Crone