Still Cold, Possible Wintry Mix This Weekend.

So far for today, the max/min temperatures as officially recorded at Tulsa International Airport has been 33/23; at least we made it above freezing if only briefly. Cannot say the same though for much of the rest of the state as the max/min temperature map for today shows, courtesy of the OK Mesonet. The clouds that moved in during the day certainly contributed to the lack of warming as we need lots of sunshine to offset the brisk northerly winds we had throughout the day.

Unfortunately, Thursday will not be much different as we will have a mix of clouds and sun and still a brisk northerly wind of at least 10-15 mph. The flip side of that though is the clouds that hang around through the overnight hours should have enough of a blanket effect to keep temperatures from totally bottoming out. Even so, look for morning temperatures to be near the 20 degree mark along with northerly winds of 10-15 mph putting the wind chill into the low teens and possibly even into the single digits for a brief time.

Daytime temperatures on Thursday will once again struggle to get much above freezing with those brisk northerly winds and another mix of clouds and sun. The winds will begin to settle down that evening with light winds overnight and a lighter NE wind for much of the day Friday. The lighter winds and a few breaks in the clouds could result in morning temperatures reaching the teens for most locations to start the day followed by mid-upper 30s that afternoon.

Saturday will see a return to a brisk SE wind of 10-15 mph or more and temperatures will try to rebound. However, cloudy skies will also prevail on Saturday as a stronger disturbance aloft moves over the state. That will likely wring at least some precipitation out of the air, but given the lack of a deep layer of moisture, amounts will be very light. Notice the 7 day QPF map for example which certainly does not anticipate much precipitation. However, the vertical temperature profile would suggest that what does fall could potentially be a wintry mix, even though we will have a southerly surface wind component. Very unusual if it does indeed transpire. At any rate, temperatures will once again be in the 30s, but at least above freezing, for daytime highs after starting off in the low-mid 20s that morning.

Sunday could be more interesting with respect to the wintry potential as we will be on the backside of the Saturday system with a return to northerly winds, some wrap-around moisture, and continued cold temperatures with daytime highs again in the low-mid 30s. Once again, the limited moisture should preclude much, if any, accumulation but that is certainly subject to change.

Going into next week, temperatures will remain well below normal with some moderation possible as daytime highs should at least make it into the 40s by Tue/Wed. However, morning lows will be in the 20s so we are still looking at running about 20 degrees below normal. The longer range guidance continues to keep us in a pronounced signal suggesting below normal temperatures. Notice the 8-14 day temperature outlook for example which takes us right up to Thanksgiving Day itself.

At least we do not see a repeat of this recent bout of unusually cold air coming our way during that Thanksgiving Week. The longer range guidance does not suggest the flow aloft will be nearly as amplified as the current pattern is and without another super typhoon moving into the Bering Sea which contributed to our current cold surge, then perhaps conditions will at least trend a little closer to normal by then.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot