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Fall-Like Weather Resumes

Fall-Like Weather Resumes

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It's as if Mother Nature is saying “back to your regularly scheduled programming” as temperatures finally return closer to normal across Green Country.  We spent a solid week in the deep freeze with temperatures bottoming out in record territory this morning.  Attached, you'll find just how cold it got across the state.  Tulsa blew past a previous record set in 1951 by a whole 5° while McAlester and Fayetteville also set record lows.  The coldest spots were near the OK/KS line where snow on the ground acted to cool the air even further.

                Fortunately, we can put those bitter cold readings behind us for now.  50°+ degree highs with lows above the freezing mark lie in our future as the deep and persistent trough of unsettled weather over the eastern half of the country finally lifts northward.  I wouldn't be surprised if we see 60s for highs over the upcoming weekend.

                The next few days will be marked by gradually warming conditions with an increase in clouds by Thursday.  South winds on that day will begin to funnel Gulf moisture into our region.  By Friday, a weak upper-level system will be enough to cause some light showers to fall across the area.  At this point, there's no concern that temperatures will be close to freezing to cause anything but liquid precipitation.  In fact, due to the influx of moisture into Saturday, our low temperatures will be warmer than today's highs.

                A stronger storm system arrives Saturday.  By this point, we have a moisture-laden atmosphere and heavy rainfall and a few storms are possible.  Count on a fairly wet start to the weekend.  Fortunately, our temperatures will be warm enough to prevent any wintry weather, but cool enough to set aside severe weather concerns.  We've been dry enough lately that even a couple inches of rain will be beneficial and not a trigger for much flooding.  The second attached map shows the potential rainfall through Sunday morning with the bullseye over southeastern Oklahoma.  The western cut-off for heavy rain may be close to Tulsa so we still have a wide range for potential rain totals and the reason the rain is not yet a guarantee.

                The rain should clear in time for the Route 66 marathon.  Since this storm system is being steered by the subtropical jet stream, it will be lacking cold air on the back side.  That means temperatures remain mild into Sunday, and likely within a range that runners would appreciate.

                The week of Thanksgiving has quite a bit of uncertainty with it at this point.  It appears we are set for another cold spell at some point in the week, potentially as early as Monday.  However, our computer models are not locked into one idea yet. This trend though has given a cooler-than-normal outlook to the end of November as seen in the final map.  A chilly Turkey Day?  I doubt it'll be any colder than what we've experienced over the past week!

                Be sure to follow me on Twitter: @GroganontheGO and on my Facebook page!

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