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Dick Faurot Weather Blog: Near Normal Temperatures At Last

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Notice the max/min temperature map for today, courtesy of the OK Mesonet. Been awhile since we have been able to say this, but the day actually turned out pretty close to normal. In fact, for Tulsa the max/min temperatures were 59/38 which is exactly normal for this date. However, the past week has certainly had an impact as temperatures so far for the month of November are running just over 10 degrees colder than normal.

That means that so far for the month of November, this is the third coldest on record. The only two colder months to date were in 1951 which was the coldest and 1997 which was second. You may well be wondering if this may be a precursor to what we can expect for the coming winter. Turns out, at least from looking at the winters that followed November 1-19 of 1951 and 1997 that no, there is no correlation. In fact, those following winters were actually much milder than normal, on average.

The winter outlook has already been issued by the Climate Prediction Center and Mike Grogan will have a story on the prospects for this coming winter during the Thursday night newscasts. He will be looking at persimmon seeds, wolly worms, and the Old Farmer's Almanac among other things. He will also include some of the recent research and climate indicators that can be helpful in determining what the winter will be like, so be sure to watch that story Thursday night.

In the meantime, now that we have returned to some semblance of normalcy with respect to temperatures, look for a more moderate forecast for the rest of this week and through the coming weekend. Daytime highs will be well into the 50s if not near 60 for Thursday through the weekend. Clear skies and light winds tonight will result in morning lows back into the 20s, but after that a return to a more southerly wind and increasing cloud cover will keep our nights much warmer. Friday morning will start off in the low 40s and Saturday morning as well as Sunday morning will likely be in the 40s to 50s.

The increasing cloud cover will also be a reflection of a storm system coming our way. The return flow and moisture will likely result in light rain or drizzle to start the day Friday with a chance of showers throughout the day. Saturday still looks to be the wettest day with overcast skies and widespread showers and even a chance of thunder. Some of those showers will likely extend into the Sunday morning time frame before everything moves on eastward. Notice the 7 day QPF map which still has the bullseye of heavier precipitation more into the southern counties, but there is still the potential for an inch or so for much of Green Country.

As the rain ends Sunday, a cool front will be sweeping across the state followed by a moderate cool-down going into early next week. This will be nothing like what we have just experienced though and temperatures should be rebounding in time for Thanksgiving. Right now the longer range guidance is not maintaining much continuity and the GFS and ECMWF are on completely separate pages by later next week. Right now, the more amplified and therefore stormier ECMWF solution looks very much like an outlier as it does not correlate very well with its own ensemble members. With that in mind, am going with near normal conditions for Thanksgiving Day which translates into daytime highs in the mid 50s under fair to partly cloudy skies.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot

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