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Friday Morning Update

Warmer Weekend But Colder Monday

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I know Thanksgiving was yesterday, but Happy Thanksgiving to you on the day after!   Temps are cool this morning but will begin a rapid warm up this afternoon into the weekend before a stout shallow cold front moves across the area Sunday night.   This will bring much colder air Monday with a slight chance for some light drizzle across eastern OK Monday.  There will exist a small window for some freezing drizzle across part of northeastern OK and northwestern Arkansas.  The cold air will stick around Monday into Tuesday morning before quickly modifying next week. 

Temps this morning are in the mid-30s to near 40 for many locations with light winds from the south and early morning Black Friday shoppers will not encounter any weather issues this morning.   As the afternoon progresses, the southwest surface winds will increase speeds from 15 to 25 mph as daytime highs move into the mid-60s.  The fire danger may still be enhanced this afternoon due to the gusty winds and dry vegetation, but low level moisture will quickly advance northward into the state this weekend. 

Saturday and Sunday will continue to feature above seasonal average temps with morning lows in the 50s and highs in the lower 70s.   Data support a strong shallow cold front moving across the area Sunday evening into Monday morning.   Temps may start around freezing Monday morning, drop into the upper 20s or lower 30s, and only climb to the mid-30s by afternoon along with northeast winds at 15 mph.  Some drizzle may be possible early Monday across extreme eastern OK into western Arkansas with surface temps near freezing.  This may create a small window for some light freezing drizzle to impact elevated surfaces for an hour or so Monday morning.   This impact is expected to remain low, but will be watched closely.

Most data support a developing southern stream system next week, but the overall evolution across the central and southern plains remains unclear this morning.    This development of the southern stream usually brings active weather into the southern and central plains, but the overall model output remains inconsistent with outcomes and run to run outputs.  We'll keep the remainder of the forecast dry for next week with temps warming into the 50s for highs and 30s for lows.  Last week, I anticipated storm chances increasing by Wednesday of next week.  This does not appear likely with this morning's data, and may not occur until next weekend.   

Thanks for reading the Friday Morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a good day!

Alan Crone


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