Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Chance For Rain Over Next Couple Of Days
Tuesday, December 2nd 2014, 3:55 AM CST
The shallow arctic air will quickly modify later today and tomorrow as south winds return to the area later this afternoon. A series of waves will move across eastern OK over the next few days resulting in a least two decent chances of rain. Temps should continue to move into the 50s through the end of the week. Some questions still remain regarding the weekend numbers.
The sky cleared out late yesterday evening into the overnight hours allowing temps to drop into the upper teens and the lower 20s this morning across western OK. This did not happen across the eastern third of the state. The clouds have remained consistent overnight and have kept our temps around 30 for the early morning hours. Wind speeds are relatively light. Our temps this afternoon will move into the lower 40s with clouds clearing slowly from the west to the east after the noon hour today. Mostly sunny conditions will prevail later this afternoon with light southeast winds around 10 mph.
The upper air flow will remain from the west to the east for the next several days as the southern portion of the jet becomes active. The first wave approaches Wednesday into Thursday. As warm-moist air arrives overnight, low clouds, fog, and drizzle will attempt to form in some locations across northern and eastern OK. Temps will be near or slightly above freezing, so the threat for freezing fog or drizzle, while not zero, remains low. This will need to be watched carefully.
The second wave moves across the area Thursday night into Friday with a higher likelihood for rain across a larger part of eastern OK Friday morning to early afternoon. Temps will be too warm for wintry precip and will start in the 40s and finish in the lower 50s.
The weekend data continue to offer another stronger wave in the zonal flow resulting in Sunday rain chances, but the data this morning has taken the system slightly southward across the Red River Valley. A few rumbles of thunder may be possible, more so across southern OK. We'll keep a chance for some rain Sunday, but only in the 30% range for this forecast cycle.
The EURO data continue to be the cooler set with highs this weekend only in the upper 40s as it drops a weak boundary southward across the state. GFS data keeps this boundary slightly northward and consequently, the daytime highs are slightly warmer, and in the 50s. As I posted yesterday, we'll take a blended approach at this hour, but changes to the weekend temperatures will be likely once confidence improves. EURO also suggest much colder air for Monday and Tuesday. Again, we're staying above at this point.
Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a good day!