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Thursday Morning Update

Drizzle, Fog, And Rain

Posted: Updated:
The main upper level system located across the western third of the country is slowly moving eastward and helping to produce light showers and drizzle across part of the state.  We're in the running for the next several hours for some drizzle or light showers across the northern third of the state with cool temperatures in the upper 40s or lower 50s persisting for the afternoon and late day period.   Some dense fog may also be possible across central, southern, and part of western OK.   As of this hour, a dense fog advisory is not in effect for the Tulsa metro, but I encourage you to check the top of this weather section for the latest advisory status.   As a stronger wave aloft approaches the state later tonight, widespread rain will begin to develop and move eastward across northern OK and southern Kansas.   Rain should also occur across the central and southeastern part of the state, but coverage may be less in some locations.   Some model data is bringing a dry slot quickly into the area tomorrow, after the morning hours, which may limit the precip across the southern and eastern sections of the state.  Another wave will approach the area Sunday, but most data continue to support most of the energy taking a southern route across north Texas and the Red River Valley.  

The temps remained in the mid and upper 40s yesterday with some drizzle and light showers across the southern and eastern section of the state.  This morning, as wide spread moisture moves northward, more drizzle, fog, and pockets of light small diameter showers will be possible.   Temps will remain in the lower 40s this morning with southeast winds around 5 to 10 mph.

Later these evening,  temperatures will move into the lower 50s and remain constant overnight into Friday morning as the rain develops and spreads across the northern third of the state.   Most data support a warm sector developing with temps moving into the upper 50s near 63 Friday afternoon along with southeast winds at 10 to 15 mph.   The rain should be exiting the state later Friday afternoon and into the early evening hours leaving most of Friday night dry.   Most data would support amounts in the range of 0.40 to 0.90 inches.  

Saturday appears cool but dry with north winds and morning lows in the lower 40s and afternoon highs in the upper 40s near 50.   The second system in the zonal flow aloft will move near the state Sunday, but model data continue suggesting the bulk of this wave will remain to our south.   We'll continue to keep a very low probability in the forecast, but most locations are expected to remain dry Sunday.

Monday into Tuesday appears dry and seasonal with highs in the lower 50s Monday and slightly cooler Tuesday.   Some data will bring some rain back into the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, but again, at this hour, we'll keep the pops on the low side.

Thanks for reading the Thursday Morning weather discussion and blog.

Alan Crone

KOTV

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